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作者：Beaulieu, Marie-Claude; Dufour, Jean-Marie; Khalaf, Lynda
作者单位：Laval University; McGill University; Carleton University
摘要：We propose exact simulation-based procedures for: (i) testing mean-variance efficiency when the zero-beta rate is unknown; (ii) building confidence intervals for the zero-beta rate. On observing that this parameter may be weakly identified, we propose likelihood-ratio-type tests as well as Fieller-type procedures based on a Hotelling-HAC statistic, which are robust to weak identification and allow for non-Gaussian distributions including parametric GARCH structures. The Fieller-Hotelling-HAC p...
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作者：Hossain, Tanjim; Okui, Ryo
作者单位：University of Toronto; Kyoto University
摘要：We introduce a simple method for constructing a scoring rule to elicit an agent's belief about a random variable that is incentive compatible irrespective of her risk-preference. The agent receives a fixed prize when her prediction error, defined by a loss function specified in the incentive scheme, is smaller than an independently generated random number and earns a smaller prize otherwise. Adjusting the loss function according to the belief elicitation objective, the scoring rule can be used...
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作者：Knowles, John A.
作者单位：University of Southampton
摘要：Are macro-economists mistaken in ignoring bargaining between spouses? This article argues that models of intra-household allocation could be useful for understanding aggregate labour supply trends in the U.S. since the 1970s. A simple calculation suggests that the standard model without bargaining predicts a 19% decline in married-male labour supply in response to the narrowing of the gender gap in wages since the 1970s. However married-men's paid labour remained stationary over the period fro...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Robinson, James A.; Torvik, Ragnar
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Harvard University; Norwegian University of Science & Technology (NTNU)
摘要：Voters often dismantle constitutional checks and balances on the executive. If such checks and balances limit presidential abuses of power and rents, why do voters support their removal? We argue that by reducing politician rents, checks and balances also make it cheaper to bribe or influence politicians through non-electoral means. In weakly institutionalized polities where such non-electoral influences, particularly by the better organized elite, are a major concern, voters may prefer a poli...
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作者：Burks, Stephen V.; Carpenter, Jeffrey P.; Goette, Lorenz; Rustichini, Aldo
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Morris; Middlebury College; University of Lausanne; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：Evidence from both psychology and economics indicates that individuals give statements that appear to overestimate their ability compared to that of others. We test three theories that predict such relative overconfidence. The first theory argues that overconfidence can be generated by Bayesian updating from a common prior and truthful statements if individuals do not know their true type. The second theory suggests that self-image concerns asymmetrically affect the choice to receive new infor...
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作者：Kapicka, Marek
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences
摘要：This article studies efficient allocations in a dynamic private information economy with a continuum of idiosyncratic shocks that are persistent. I develop a first-order approach for this environment and show that the problem has a simple recursive structure that relies on only a small number of state variables, making the problem tractable. I find sufficient conditions that guarantee that the first-order approach is valid. To illustrate the first-order approach I numerically compute the effic...
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作者：Rohner, Dominic; Thoenig, Mathias; Zilibotti, Fabrizio
作者单位：University of Lausanne; University of Zurich
摘要：We construct a theory of persistent civil conflicts, where persistence is driven by the endogenous dynamics of inter-ethnic trust and trade. In times of peace, agents belonging to two groups are randomly matched to trade bilaterally. Trade hinges on trust and cooperation. The onset of conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to cooperate, harming future trust and trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time. The theory predicts that civil wa...
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作者：Telyukova, Irina A.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：In the 2001 U.S. Survey of Consumer Finances, 27% of households report simultaneously revolving significant credit card debt and holding sizeable amounts of low-return liquid assets; this is known as the credit card debt puzzle. In this article, I quantitatively evaluate the role of liquidity demand in accounting for this puzzle: households that accumulate credit card debt may not pay it off using their money in the bank, because they anticipate needing that money in situations where credit ca...
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作者：Balafoutas, Loukas; Beck, Adrian; Kerschbamer, Rudolf; Sutter, Matthias
作者单位：University of Innsbruck; University of Gothenburg; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：Credence goods are characterized by informational asymmetries between sellers and consumers that invite fraudulent behaviour by sellers. This article presents a natural field experiment on taxi rides in Athens, Greece, set up to measure different types of fraud and to examine the influence of passengers' presumed information and income on the extent of fraud. We find that passengers with inferior information about optimal routes are taken on significantly longer detours, while lack of informat...
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作者：Bhaskar, V.; Mailath, George J.; Morris, Stephen
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of Pennsylvania; Princeton University
摘要：We study stochastic games with an infinite horizon and sequential moves played by an arbitrary number of players. We assume that social memory is finite-every player, except possibly one, is finitely lived and cannot observe events that are sufficiently far back in the past. This class of games includes games between a long-run player and a sequence of short-run players, and games with overlapping generations of players. An equilibrium is purifiable if some close-by behaviour is consistent wit...
