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作者：Asriyan, Vladimir; Laeven, Luc; Martin, Alberto
作者单位：Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; European Central Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We develop a new theory of information production during credit booms. Entrepreneurs need credit to undertake investment projects, some of which enable them to divert resources. Lenders can protect themselves from such diversion in two ways: collateralization, and costly screening that generates durable information about projects. In equilibrium, the collateralization-screening mix depends on the value of aggregate collateral. High collateral values make it possible to reallocate resources tow...
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作者：Chade, Hector; Lindenlaub, Ilse
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Yale University
摘要：We develop a model where risk-averse workers can costly invest in their skills before matching with heterogenous firms. At the investment stage, workers face multiple sources of risk. They are uncertain about how skilled they will turn out and also about their income shock realizations at the time of employment. We analyse the equilibria of two versions of the model that depend on when uncertainty resolves, which determines the available risk-sharing possibilities between workers and firms. We...
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作者：Penta, Antonio; Zuazo-Garin, Peio
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; ICREA; HSE University (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
摘要：We study the strategic impact of players' higher-order uncertainty over the observability of actions in general two-player games. More specifically, we consider the space of all belief hierarchies generated by the uncertainty over whether the game will be played as a static game or with perfect information. Over this space, we characterize the correspondence of a solution concept which captures the behavioural implications of Rationality and Common Belief in Rationality (RCBR), where rationali...
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作者：Buchholz, Nicholas
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：This article analyses the dynamic spatial equilibrium of taxicabs and shows how common taxi regulations lead to substantial inefficiencies as a result of search frictions and mis-allocation. To analyse the role of regulation on frictions and efficiency, I pose a dynamic model of spatial search and matching between taxis and passengers. Using a comprehensive dataset of New York City yellow medallion taxis, I use this model to compute the equilibrium spatial distribution of vacant taxis and esti...
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作者：Fouka, Vasiliki; Mazumder, Soumyajit; Tabellini, Marco
作者单位：Stanford University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Harvard University; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：How does the arrival of a new minority group affect the social acceptance and outcomes of existing minorities? We study this question in the context of the First Great Migration. Between 1915 and 1930, 1.5 million African Americans moved from the U.S. South to Northern urban centres, which were home to millions of European immigrants arrived in previous decades. We formalize and empirically test the hypothesis that the inflows of Black Americans changed perceptions of outgroup distance among n...
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作者：Lundborg, Petter; Rooth, Dan-Olof; Alex-Petersen, Jesper
作者单位：Lund University; Stockholm University; Lund University
摘要：We study the long-term impact of a policy-driven change in childhood nutrition. For this purpose, we evaluate a program that rolled out nutritious school lunches free of charge to all pupils in Swedish primary schools between 1959 and 1969. We estimate the impact of the program on children's economic, educational, and health outcomes throughout life. Our results show that the school lunch program generated substantial long-term benefits, where pupils exposed to the program during their entire ...
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作者：di Giovanni, Julian; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Ulu, Mehmet Fatih; Baskaya, Yusuf Soner
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Pompeu Fabra University; ICREA; Barcelona School of Economics; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Koc University; University of Glasgow
摘要：This article studies the transmission of the Global Financial Cycle (GFC) to domestic credit market conditions in a large emerging market, Turkey, over 2003-13. We use administrative data covering the universe of corporate credit transactions matched to bank balance sheets to document four facts: (1) an easing in global financial conditions leads to lower borrowing costs and an increase in local lending; (2) domestic banks more exposed to international capital markets transmit the GFC locally;...
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作者：Flueckiger, Matthias; Hornung, Erik; Larch, Mario; Ludwig, Markus; Mees, Allard
作者单位：University of York - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Cologne; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Bayreuth; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Braunschweig University of Technology
摘要：We show that the creation of the first integrated multi-modal pan-European transport network during Roman times influences economic integration over two millennia. Drawing on spatially highly disaggregated data on excavated Roman ceramics, we document that contemporary interregional trade was influenced by connectivity within the network. Today, these connectivity differentials continue to influence integration as approximated by cross-regional firm investment behaviour. Continuity is partly e...
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作者：Li, Jia; Liao, Zhipeng; Quaedvlieg, Rogier
作者单位：Duke University; Singapore Management University; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC
摘要：This article proposes a test for the conditional superior predictive ability (CSPA) of a family of forecasting methods with respect to a benchmark. The test is functional in nature: under the null hypothesis, the benchmark's conditional expected loss is no more than those of the competitors, uniformly across all conditioning states. By inverting the CSPA tests for a set of benchmarks, we obtain confidence sets for the uniformly most superior method. The econometric inference pertains to testin...
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作者：Cogley, Timothy; Jovanovic, Boyan
作者单位：New York University
摘要：We study the effects of parameter uncertainty prompted by structural breaks. In our model, agents respond differently to uncertainty prompted by regime shifts in shock processes than they react to comparable perceived increases in shock volatility. The magnitude of the response to an increase in uncertainty about TFP associated with a structural break is greater than that of a response to a comparable perceived rise in volatility. This is because lifetime utility varies more when shocks shift ...
