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作者：Mello, Steven
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：While survey evidence suggests widespread financial fragility in the U.S., causal evidence on the implications of typical, negative income shocks is scarce. I estimate the impact of speeding fines on household finances using administrative traffic citation records and a panel of credit reports. Event studies reveal that fines averaging $195 are associated with a $34 increase in unpaid bills in collections. Given additional evidence that fine payment explains this effect and that default is the...
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作者：de Paula, Aureo; Rasul, Imran; Souza, Pedro C. L.
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of London; University College London; University of London; Queen Mary University London
摘要：Social interactions determine many economic behaviours, but information on social ties does not exist in most publicly available and widely used datasets. We present results on the identification of social networks from observational panel data that contains no information on social ties between agents. In the context of a canonical social interactions model, we provide sufficient conditions under which the social interactions matrix, endogenous and exogenous social effect parameters are globa...
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作者：Rubinton, Hannah
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：This paper shows that the growing disparities between big and small cities in the U.S. since 1980 can be explained by firms endogenously responding to a skill-biased technology shock. With the introduction of a new skill-biased technology that is high fixed cost but low marginal cost, firms endogenously adopt more in big cities, cities that offer abundant amenities for high-skilled workers, and cities that are more productive in using high-skilled labour. In cities with more adoption, small an...
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作者：Boehm, Christoph E.; Kroner, T. Niklas
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We provide evidence for a causal link between the U.S. economy and the global financial cycle. Using intraday data, we show that U.S. macroeconomic news releases have large and significant effects on global risky asset prices. Stock price indexes of 27 countries, the VIX, and commodity prices all jump instantaneously upon news releases. The responses of stock indexes co-move across countries and are large-often comparable in size to the response of the S&P 500. Further, U.S. macroeconomic news...
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作者：Chandrasekhar, Arun G.; Jackson, Matthew O.
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; Stanford University
摘要：We develop a new class of random graph models for the statistical estimation of network formation-subgraph generated models (SUGMs). Various subgraphs-e.g. links, triangles, cliques, stars-are generated and their union results in a network. We show that SUGMs are identified and establish the consistency and asymptotic distribution of parameter estimators in empirically relevant cases. We show that a simple four-parameter SUGM matches basic patterns in empirical networks more closely than four ...
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作者：Honore, Bo E.; Weidner, Martin
作者单位：Princeton University; University of Oxford; University of Oxford
摘要：This paper investigates the construction of moment conditions in discrete choice panel data with individual-specific fixed effects. We describe how to systematically explore the existence of moment conditions that do not depend on the fixed effects, and we demonstrate how to construct them when they exist. Our approach is closely related to the numerical functional differencing construction introduced in a seminal paper by Bonhomme, but our emphasis is to find explicit analytic expressions for...
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作者：Cocci, Matthew D.; Plagborg-Moller, Mikkel
作者单位：Amazon.com; Princeton University
摘要：Calibration, the practice of choosing the parameters of a structural model to match certain empirical moments, can be viewed as minimum distance estimation. Existing standard error formulas for such estimators require a consistent estimate of the correlation structure of the empirical moments, which is often unavailable in practice. Instead, the variances of the individual empirical moments are usually readily estimable. Using only these variances, we derive conservative standard errors and co...
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作者：Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt; Wee, Shu Lin
作者单位：Bank of Canada
摘要：Job applications have risen over time, yet job-finding rates remain unchanged. Meanwhile, separations have declined. We argue that increased applications raise the probability of a good match rather than the probability of job-finding. Using a search model with multiple applications and costly information, we show that when applications increase, firms invest in identifying good matches, reducing separations. Concurrently, increased congestion and selectivity over which offer to accept temper ...
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作者：Ekmekci, Mehmet; Zhang, Hanzhe
作者单位：Boston College; Michigan State University
摘要：Two parties negotiate in the presence of external resolution opportunities (e.g. court, arbitration, or war). The outcome of external resolution depends on the privately held justifiability/strength of their claims. A justified party issues an ultimatum for resolution whenever possible, but an unjustified party strategically bluffs with an ultimatum to establish a reputation for being justified. We show that the availability of external resolution opportunities can benefit or hurt an unjustifi...
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作者：Dellavigna, Stefano; Kim, Woojin
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：Economists have studied the impact of numerous state laws, from welfare rules to voting ID requirements. Yet for all this policy evaluation, what do we know about policy diffusion-how these policies are introduced and spread from state to state? We present a series of facts based on a data set of 602 U.S. state policies spanning the past seven decades. First, proxies of state capacity do not predict a higher likelihood of innovating new policies, but the political leaning of the state does pre...
