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作者：Gross, Till; Klein, Paul; Makris, Miltiadis
作者单位：Carleton University; Stockholm University; University of Essex
摘要：We explore the short- and long-run implications of tax competition between jurisdictions, where governments can only tax capital at source. We do this in the context of a neoclassical growth model under commitment and capital mobility. We provide a new theoretical perspective on the dynamic capital tax externalities that emerge in this model. Numerically, we show that the net capital tax externality is positive in the short run but converges to zero in the long run. We also find that noncooper...
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作者：Dovis, Alessandro; Kirpalani, Rishabh
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We propose a joint theory for interest rate dynamics and bailout decisions. Interest rate spreads are driven by time-varying fundamentals and expectations of future bailouts. Private agents are uncertain about the government's willingness to bail out and learn by observing its actions. The model provides an explanation for why we observe governments initially refusing to bail out borrowers at the beginning of a crisis even if they eventually end up providing a bailout after the crisis aggravat...
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作者：Pouzo, Demian; Presno, Ignacio
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：How are the optimal tax and debt policies affected if the government can default on its debt? We address this question from a normative perspective in an economy with noncontingent government debt, domestic default, and labor taxes. On one hand, default prevents the government from incurring future tax distortions associated with servicing the debt. On the other hand, default risk gives rise to endogenous credit limits that hinder the government???s ability to smooth taxes. We characterize the...
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作者：Kohlhas, Alexandre N.
摘要：A common view states that central bank releases decrease central banks' own information about the economy and are harmful if about inefficient disturbances, such as cost-push shocks. This paper shows how neither is true in a microfounded macroeconomic model in which households and firms learn from central bank releases and the central bank learns from the observation of firm prices. Central bank releases make private sector and central bank expectations closer to common knowledge. This helps t...
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作者：Adrian, Tobias; Grinberg, Federico; Liang, Nellie; Malik, Sheheryar; Yu, Jie
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Columbia University
摘要：We show that the conditional distribution of forecasted GDP growth depends on financial conditions in a panel of 11 advanced economies. Financial conditions have a larger effect on the lower fifth percentile of conditional growth which we call growth-at-risk (GaR) than the median. In addition, the term structure of GaR reflects that when initial financial conditions are loose, downside risks are lower in the near term but increase in later quarters. This intertemporal tradeoff for loose financ...
