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作者：Baumeister, Christiane; Peersman, Gert
作者单位：Bank of Canada; Ghent University
摘要：Using time-varying BVARs, we find a substantial decline in the short-run price elasticity of oil demand since the mid-1980s. This finding helps explain why an oil production shortfall of the same magnitude is associated with a stronger response of oil prices and more severe macroeconomic consequences over time, while a similar oil price increase is associated with smaller output effects. Oil supply shocks also account for a smaller fraction of real oil price variability in more recent periods,...
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作者：Bazzi, Samuel; Clemens, Michael A.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Concern has intensified in recent years that many instrumental variables used in widely-cited growth regressions may be invalid, weak, or both. Attempts to remedy this general problem remain inadequate. We show how a range of published studies can offer more evidence that their results are not spurious. Key steps include: grounding growth regressions in more generalized theoretical models, deployment of new methods for estimating sensitivity to violations of exclusion restrictions, opening the...
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作者：Cruces, Juan J.; Trebesch, Christoph
作者单位：Universidad Torcuato Di Tella; University of Munich
摘要：A main puzzle in the sovereign debt literature is that defaults have only minor effects on subsequent borrowing costs and access to credit. This paper comes to a different conclusion. We construct the first complete database of investor losses (haircuts) in all restructurings with foreign banks and bondholders from 1970 until 2010, covering 180 cases in 68 countries. We then show that restructurings involving higher haircuts are associated with significantly higher subsequent bond yield spread...
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作者：Justiniano, Alejandro; Primiceri, Giorgio E.; Tambalotti, Andrea
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：We find that the answer is no in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy in which exogenous movements in workers' market power are not a major driver of observed economic fluctuations. If they are, the tension between the conflicting stabilization objectives of monetary policy increases, but with negligible effects on the equilibrium behavior of the economy under optimal policy. (JEL E12, E23, E24, E31, E32, E52)
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作者：Berriel, Tiago C.; Bhattarai, Saroj
作者单位：Getulio Vargas Foundation; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：We explain why international nominal bonds and equity portfolios are biased domestically. In our model, holding domestic government nominal debt provides a hedge against shocks to bond returns and the impact on taxes they induce. For this result, only two features are essential: nominal risk and taxes only on domestic agents. A third feature explains domestically biased equity holdings: government spending falls on domestic goods. Then, an increase in government spending raises the returns on ...
