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作者：Brueckner, Markus; Ciccone, Antonio
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries' main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.
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作者：Feve, Patrick; Guay, Alain
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Universite de Toulouse; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal
摘要：The usefulness of SVARs for developing empirically plausible models is actually subject to controversies in macroeconomics. We propose a two-step SVARs-based procedure which consistently estimates the effect of permanent technology shocks on aggregate variables. Simulation experiments from a standard business cycle model and a sticky prices model show that our approach outperforms standard SVARs. The two-step procedure, when applied to actual data, predicts a significant short-run decrease of ...
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作者：Abdellaoui, Mohammed; Attema, Arthur E.; Bleichrodt, Han
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam
摘要：This article provides a parameter-free measurement of utility in intertemporal choice and presents new and more robust evidence on the discounting of money outcomes. Intertemporal utility was concave for gains and convex for losses, consistent with a hypothesis put forward by Loewenstein and Prelec (1992). Discount rates declined over time but less so than previously observed under the assumption of linear utility. For approximately 40% of our subjects constant discounting provided the best fi...
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作者：Gravelle, Hugh; Sutton, Matt; Ma, Ada
作者单位：University of York - UK; University of Manchester; University of Aberdeen
摘要：The UK National Health Service introduced a pay for performance scheme for primary care providers in 2004/5. The scheme rewarded providers for the proportion of eligible patients who received appropriate treatment. Eligible patients were those who had been reported by the provider as having the relevant disease minus those they exception reported as not suitable for treatment. Using rich provider level data, we find that differences in reported disease rates between providers, and differences ...
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作者：Behncke, Stefanie; Froelich, Markus; Lechner, Michael
作者单位：IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This article examines whether the chances of job placements improve if the unemployed are counselled by caseworkers who belong to the same social group, defined by gender, age, education and nationality. Based on an unusually informative dataset, which links Swiss unemployed to their caseworkers, we find positive employment effects of about 3 percentage points if the caseworker and his unemployed client belong to the same social group. Coincidence in a single characteristic, e.g., same gender ...
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作者：Chabot, Benjamin R.; Kurz, Christopher J.
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Why did Victorian Britain send so much capital abroad? We collect over 500,000 monthly British and foreign security returns between 1866 and 1907 and investigate the effect of international diversification on Victorian investors' portfolios. This is the first study to use nineteenth-century data that is both broad enough and sampled at a high enough frequency to examine if foreign assets expanded the mean-variance efficient frontier of British investors and how valuable this expansion was in t...
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作者：Dustmann, Christian; Machin, Stephen; Schoenberg, Uta
作者单位：University of London; University College London
摘要：This article documents that at the start of school, pupils from most ethnic groups substantially lag behind White British pupils. However, these gaps decline for all groups throughout compulsory schooling. Language is the single most important factor why ethnic minority pupils improve relative to White British pupils. Poverty, in contrast, does not contribute to the catch-up. Our results also suggest the possibility that the greater than average progress of ethnic minority pupils in schools wi...
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作者：Miller, Grant
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：There has been considerable debate in the last decade about whether or not family planning programmes in developing countries reduce fertility or improve socio-economic outcomes. This article provides new evidence by studying the expansion of one of the world's oldest and largest family planning organisations - Profamilia of Colombia. It finds that family planning explains less than 10% of Colombia's fertility decline during its demographic transition. As in wealthy countries, however, lowerin...
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作者：Gintis, Herbert
作者单位：The Santa Fe Institute; Central European University
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作者：Laibson, David; Mollerstrom, Johanna
摘要：Bernanke (2005) hypothesised that a 'global savings glut' was causing large trade imbalances. However, we show that the global savings rates did not show a robust upward trend during the relevant period. Moreover, if there had been a global savings glut there should have been a large investment boom in the countries that imported capital. Instead, those countries experienced consumption booms. National asset bubbles explain the international imbalances. The bubbles raised consumption, resultin...
