-
作者：Cogley, Timothy; Sargent, Thomas J.; Tsyrennikov, Viktor
作者单位：New York University; Cornell University
摘要：Two types of agents have diverse beliefs about the law of motion for an exogenous endowment. One knows the true process, and the other learns about it via Bayes' theorem. Financial market structure affects the dynamics of the wealth distribution. When markets are complete, the learning agent loses wealth, as in Blume and Easley (2006). The absence of markets for some Arrow securities alters the direction in which wealth is transferred. When the only traded asset is a risk-free bond, the learni...
-
作者：Dellas, Harris; Fernandes, Ana
作者单位：University of Bern; University of Oxford; University of Fribourg
摘要：We investigate the role of financial constraints for product market competition in a general equilibrium model, where firms may differ in terms of own wealth and/or efficiency. We find that, in general, the amelioration of financial constraints increases competition (it lowers the Lerner index of markups) in financially dependent sectors even when other standard concentration indexes indicate otherwise. Our analysis implies that disruptions in financial markets - such as the recent financial c...
-
作者：Faccini, Renato
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London
摘要：The literature has warned against the risk that expanding temporary contracts might lead to segmented labour markets while failing to reduce unemployment. This article reports stylised facts suggesting that in most European countries temporary workers enjoy high rates of transition into permanent employment and presents empirical evidence showing that temporary contracts significantly decrease the unemployment rate. A matching model in which firms use temporary contracts to screen workers for ...
-
作者：Brown, Alasdair
作者单位：University of East Anglia
摘要：I analyse a series of natural quasi-experiments - centred on betting exchange data on the Wimbledon Tennis Championships - to determine whether information processing constraints are partially responsible for mispricing in asset markets. I find that the arrival of information during each match leads to substantial mispricing between two equivalent assets, and that part of this mispricing can be attributed to differences in the frequency with which the two prices are updated inplay. This sugges...
-
作者：Postel-Vinay, Fabien; Turon, Helene
作者单位：University of Bristol
摘要：Job-to-job turnover provides a way for employers to escape statutory firing costs, as unprofitable workers may willfully quit their job on receiving an outside offer, or may be induced to accept one that they would otherwise reject with a negotiated severance package. We formalise those mechanisms within an extension of the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model that allows for employed job search. We find that our model explains why higher firing costs intensify job-to-job turnover at the expense...
-
作者：Hetschko, Clemens; Knabe, Andreas; Schoeb, Ronnie
作者单位：Free University of Berlin; Otto von Guericke University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：Using German panel data, we show that unemployed people are, on average, less satisfied with their life than employed people, but they report a substantial increase in their life satisfaction upon retirement. We interpret this finding using identity theory. Retirement raises the identity utility of the unemployed because it changes the social norms they are supposed to adhere to. The social norm for people of working age prescribes that able-bodied people should be employed, whereas the social...
-
作者：Couttenier, Mathieu; Soubeyran, Raphael
作者单位：University of Lausanne; INRAE; Universite de Montpellier
摘要：We explore the relationship between drought and civil war. We show that the link between rainfall, temperature and civil war found in the literature may be driven by aggregate shocks (such as global climate) that were not accounted for. A standard differences-in-differences specification relying only on within country variation reveals a much weaker and insignificant link between weather variables and civil war. To increase statistical power, we propose a country-specific measure of drought th...
-
作者：Jia, Ruixue
摘要：I use data covering 267 prefectures over four centuries to investigate two questions about historical China. To what extent did weather shocks cause civil conflict? And to what extent did the historical introduction of (drought resistant) sweet potatoes mitigate these effects? I find that before the introduction of sweet potatoes, exceptional droughts increased the probability of peasant revolts by around 0.7 percentage points, which translates into a revolt probability in drought years that i...
-
作者：Ellison, Martin; Keller, Godfrey; Roberts, Kevin; Stevens, Margaret
作者单位：University of Oxford
摘要：Without strong empirical support, labour market matching models typically assume constant returns to scale in matching. We construct a tractable equilibrium random matching model with a general matching technology, introducing market size effects: the job-finding rate varies with unemployment. Stable steady-states may occur in regions of increasing or decreasing returns, and multiple equilibria are welfare-ranked by market size. While the standard model relies on high-frequency shocks to the s...
-
作者：Croxson, Karen; Reade, J. James
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of Oxford; University of Birmingham
摘要：An efficient market incorporates news into prices immediately and fully. Tests for efficiency in financial markets have been undermined by information leakage. We test for efficiency in sports betting markets - real-world markets where news breaks remarkably cleanly. Applying a novel identification to high-frequency data, we investigate the reaction of prices to goals scored on the cusp' of half-time. This strategy allows us to separate the market's response to major news (a goal), from its re...
