DROUGHT AND CIVIL WAR IN SUB- SAHARAN AFRICA

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Couttenier, Mathieu; Soubeyran, Raphael
• 署名单位: University of Lausanne; INRAE; Universite de Montpellier
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12042
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 201-244
• 关键词: global land precipitation; economic shocks; severity index; CONFLICT; GROWTH; ETHNICITY; climate; weather; dataset; rain

摘要

We explore the relationship between drought and civil war. We show that the link between rainfall, temperature and civil war found in the literature may be driven by aggregate shocks (such as global climate) that were not accounted for. A standard differences-in-differences specification relying only on within country variation reveals a much weaker and insignificant link between weather variables and civil war. To increase statistical power, we propose a country-specific measure of drought that describes social exposure to water stress in a more efficient way than rainfall and temperature. We continue to find a weak positive link between drought and civil war.