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作者：Fratzscher, Marcel; Mehl, Arnaud
作者单位：Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Humboldt University of Berlin; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank
摘要：This study assesses whether the international monetary system is already tri-polar by testing what we call China's 'dominance hypothesis', i.e. whether the renminbi already influences exchange rate and monetary policies strongly in Asia, a direct reference to the old 'German dominance hypothesis' which ascribed to the German mark a dominant role in Europe in the 1980s. Using a global factor model of exchange rates and a complementary event study, we find evidence that the renminbi has become a...
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作者：Behrens, Kristian; Robert-Nicoud, Frederic
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Geneva
摘要：We develop a framework that integrates natural advantage, agglomeration economies and firm selection to explain why large cities are both more productive and more unequal than small towns. Our model highlights complementarities among those factors and matches a number of key stylised facts about cities. A larger city size increases productivity via selection and higher urban productivity provides incentives for rural-urban migration. Tougher selection increases the returns to skills and earnin...
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作者：Brueckner, Markus; Tuladhar, Anita
作者单位：National University of Singapore; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We estimate local government spending multipliers using annual data for 47 Japanese prefectures during the 1990s. Our main findings are as follows: the average local government spending multiplier is positive and significantly different from zero but not larger than one; there are large and significant differences in the output effects of different types of government expenditures: transfers to firms have the highest multiplier, significantly larger than one, while transfers to households have...
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作者：Aksoy, Yunus; Basso, Henrique S.
作者单位：University of London; Banco de Espana
摘要：We propose a model with segmented markets that delivers endogenous variations in term spreads driven by banks' portfolio decisions while facing maturity risk. Future profitability influences the term premium that banks require to carry this risk. When expected profitability is relatively high (low) spreads are low (high). Spread fluctuations feed back into the macroeconomy through investment decisions. Econometric evidence corroborates this link between expected financial profitability and yie...
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作者：Jung, Philip; Kuhn, Moritz
作者单位：University of Bonn; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：We compare labour market flows in the US and Germany between 1980 and 2004. In Germany, average worker flows in and out of unemployment are substantially lower; outflows are equally volatile in both countries; inflows are about twice as volatile in Germany and contribute more to the unemployment rate volatility. We explore four candidates for these differences: unemployment benefits; union bargaining power; employment protection and the efficiency of matching unemployed workers to open positio...
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作者：Loeper, Antoine; Steiner, Jakub; Stewart, Colin
作者单位：Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; University of Toronto
摘要：We present a two-stage coordination game in which early choices of experts with special interests are observed by followers who move in the second stage. We show that the equilibrium outcome is biased towards the experts' interests even though followers know the distribution of expert interests. Expert influence is fully decentralised in the sense that each individual expert has a negligible impact. The bias in favour of experts results from a social learning effect that is multiplied through ...
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作者：Denicolo, Vincenzo; Zanchettin, Piercarlo
作者单位：University of Leicester; University of Bologna; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Endogenous growth models may exhibit either under or over-investment in R&D. The possibility of over-investment is generally attributed to a business stealing effect that arises as the latest innovator destroys and/or appropriates previous incumbent's rents. We argue that this conventional wisdom is misleading. In standard models, business stealing by itself cannot result in excessive R&D. We explain the other effects that must be at work here, thus contributing towards a better understanding ...
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作者：Kuhn, Peter; Mansour, Hani
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Denver
摘要：Using National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97) data for 2005-8, we find that unemployed persons who look for work online are re-employed about 25% faster than comparable workers who do not search online. This finding contrasts with previous results for 1998-2001, and is robust to controls for cognitive test scores and detailed indicators of Internet access. Internet job search (IJS) appears to be most effective in reducing unemployment durations when used to contact friends and relatives...
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作者：Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Sala, Luca
作者单位：Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics; Bocconi University
摘要：A structural factor-augmented VAR model is used to evaluate the role of 'news shocks' in generating the business cycle. We find that existing small-scale VAR models are affected by 'non-fundamentalness' and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; news shocks have a smaller role in explaining the business cycle than previously found in the literature; their effects are essentially in line with what predicted by standard theories and a substantial fraction of ...
