CHINA'S DOMINANCE HYPOTHESIS AND THE EMERGENCE OF A TRI-POLAR GLOBAL CURRENCY SYSTEM

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fratzscher, Marcel; Mehl, Arnaud
• 署名单位: Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Humboldt University of Berlin; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12098
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 1343-1370
• 关键词: number one; COMMUNICATION; EMS; interventions; POLICY

摘要

This study assesses whether the international monetary system is already tri-polar by testing what we call China's 'dominance hypothesis', i.e. whether the renminbi already influences exchange rate and monetary policies strongly in Asia, a direct reference to the old 'German dominance hypothesis' which ascribed to the German mark a dominant role in Europe in the 1980s. Using a global factor model of exchange rates and a complementary event study, we find evidence that the renminbi has become a key driver of currency movements in Asia since the mid-2000s, especially since the global financial crisis, in line with China's dominance hypothesis.