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作者：Koop, Gary; Potter, Simon M.
作者单位：University of Strathclyde; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：This article discusses Bayesian inference in change-point models. The main existing approaches treat all change-points equally, a priori, using either a Uniform prior or an informative hierarchical prior. Both approaches assume a known number of change-points. Some undesirable properties of these approaches are discussed. We develop a new Uniform prior that allows some of the change-points to occur out of sample. This prior has desirable properties, can be interpreted as noninformative, and tr...
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作者：Hatchondo, Juan Carlos; Martinez, Leonardo; Sapriza, Horacio
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：We extend the model used in recent quantitative studies of sovereign default, allowing policymakers of different types to stochastically alternate in power. We show that a default episode may be triggered by a change in the type of policymaker in office, and that such a default is likely to occur only if there is enough political stability and if policymakers encounter poor economic conditions. Under high political stability, political turnover enables the model to generate a weaker correlatio...
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作者：Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos
作者单位：University of Leicester
摘要：This article considers an equilibrium search model, where firms post wages using information on workers' employment status. Earnings differentials between workers of different employment statuses are driven by firms' ability to discriminate workers' reservation wages. I study how these wage policies depend on firms' and workers' characteristics, and how these policies affect the wage distribution. The model delivers new predictions for the amount of wage dispersion that can be generated with s...
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作者：Chambers, Matthew; Garriga, Carlos; Schlagenhauf, Don E.
作者单位：State University System of Florida; Florida State University; University System of Maryland; Towson University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：This article accounts for the boom in homeownership from 1994 to 2005 by examining the roles of demographic changes and mortgage innovations. To measure the impact of these factors, we construct a quantitative general equilibrium overlapping generation model with housing. In the long-run, mortgage innovation accounts for between 56 and 70% of the increase whereas demographics account for a much smaller portion. We test this result by considering changes in mortgages after 1940. We find that th...
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作者：Schram, Arthur J. H. C.; Onderstal, Sander
作者单位：University of Amsterdam
摘要：We experimentally compare three mechanisms used to raise money for charities: first-price winner-pay auctions, first-price all-pay auctions, and lotteries. We stay close to the characteristics of most charity auctions by using an environment with incomplete information and independent private values. Our results support theoretical predictions by showing that the all-pay format raises substantially higher revenue than the other mechanisms.
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作者：Egger, Hartmut; Kreickemeier, Udo
作者单位：Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Bayreuth; University of Nottingham
摘要：This article develops a model that incorporates workers' fair wage preferences into a general equilibrium framework with heterogeneous firms. In a setting where the wage considered to be fair by workers depends on the productivity of the firm they are working in, we study the determinants of profits, involuntary unemployment and within-group wage inequality. We use this model to investigate the effects of globalization, thereby pointing to distributional conflicts that have so far not been acc...
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作者：Fang, Hanming; Silverman, Dan
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Duke University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We empirically implement a dynamic structural model of labor supply and welfare program participation for agents with potentially time-inconsistent preferences. Using panel data on the choices of single women with children from the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLSY) 1979, we provide estimates of the degree of time-inconsistency, and of its influence on the welfare take-up decision. With these estimates, we conduct counterfactual experiments to quantify a measure of the utility loss stemming ...
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作者：Canova, Fabio; Ciccarelli, Matteo
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：This article presents a method to estimate the coefficients, to test specification hypotheses, and to conduct policy exercises in multicountry Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models with cross-unit interdependencies, unit-specific dynamics, and time variations in the coefficients. The framework of analysis is Bayesian: A prior flexibly reduces the dimensionality of the model and puts structure on the time variations, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to obtain posterior distribution...
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作者：Carceles-Poveda, Eva; Coen-Pirani, Daniele
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University; State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University
摘要：When markets are incomplete, shareholders typically disagree on the firm's optimal investment plan. This article studies the shareholders' preferences with respect to the firm's investment in a model with aggregate risk, incomplete markets and heterogeneous households who trade in firms' shares instead of directly accumulating physical capital. If the production function exhibits constant returns to scale and borrowing limits are not binding, a firm's shareholders unanimously agree on its opti...
