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作者：Collignon, Stefan
作者单位：Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna
摘要：The sustainability of public debt is interpreted as the result of the interaction of fiscal policy with the economic environment, and not as a statistical concept as in most of the recent literature. If debt is not to explode over time, policymakers have to respond to the changing conditions in the macroeconomic environment. This article defines the conditions that will ensure compliance of fiscal policy with the intertemporal budget constraint in the context of Europe's fiscal policy rules. T...
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作者：Knell, Markus; Stiglbauer, Alfred
摘要：This article presents an extension of the Taylor model with staggered wages in which wage setting is also influenced by reference norms. We show that reference norms can considerably increase the persistence of inflation but that the size of this effect depends on the exact definition (e.g., external vs. internal, symmetric vs. asymmetric norms). Using data on collectively bargained wages in Austria from 1980 to 2006 we show that wage setting is strongly influenced by reference norms, that ext...
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作者：Bullard, James; Singh, Aarti
作者单位：University of Sydney; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：We study a stylized theory of the volatility reduction in the U.S. after 1984the Great Moderationwhich attributes part of the stabilization to less volatile shocks and another part to more difficult inference on the part of Bayesian households attempting to learn the latent state of the economy. We use a standard equilibrium business cycle model with technology following an unobserved regime-switching process. After 1984, according to Kim and Nelson (1999a), the variance of U.S. macroeconomic ...
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作者：Chong, Yanping; Jorda, Oscar; Taylor, Alan M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Minnesota State Colleges & Universities; Winona State University; University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Frictions and perturbations may influence currency values in the short run, but it is generally acknowledged that real-exchange rates eventually settle toward equilibrium. The puzzle then is how gradually this parity is reached given the fluidity in foreign exchange markets. Persistent differences in the relative productivity of countriesa broad characterization of the HarrodBalassaSamuelson hypothesismay help explain this puzzle. This article introduces methods to estimate equilibrium adjustm...
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作者：Benhabib, Jess; Jovanovic, Boyan
作者单位：New York University
摘要：We ask what level of migration would maximize world welfare. Welfare is assumed to be a weighted average of the utilities of the worlds various citizens, but the weights are also country specific. Using a calibrated one-sector model, we find that unless the weights are heavily biased toward the natives of rich countries, the extent of migration that would be optimal far exceeds the levels observed today. The claim remains true in a two-sector extension of the model. All versions of the model a...
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作者：Nakajima, Makoto
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：I introduce risk-aversion, labor-leisure choice, capital, individual productivity shocks, and market incompleteness to the standard model of labor search and matching and investigate the models cyclical properties. I find that the model can generate the observed large volatility of unemployment and vacancies with a reasonable replacement rate of unemployment insurance benefits of 64%. Labor-leisure choice plays a crucial role through additional utility from leisure when unemployed and further ...
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作者：Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher; Prasad, Eswar
作者单位：University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia; International Monetary Fund; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Cornell University
摘要：We analyze the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 19602008. Using a dynamic factor model, we decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in output, consumption, and investment into a global factor, factors specific to country groups, and country-specific factors. We find that during 19852008, there is some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among industrial economies and among emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there is a concomitant decline in th...
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作者：Kirdar, Murat G.
作者单位：Middle East Technical University
摘要：This article estimates immigrants fiscal impact on the German pension insurance and unemployment insurance systems when return migration is an endogenous choice. For this purpose, it develops a dynamic stochastic model of joint return migration and saving decisions and estimates it using longitudinal data on immigrants from five countries. The results indicate that exogenous return migrationwhich has been the practice of the literature so farunderestimates the state coffers net gain substantia...
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作者：Ohlendorf, Susanne; Schmitz, Patrick W.
作者单位：University of Cologne; University of Bonn
摘要：We consider a repeated moral hazard problem where both the principal and the wealth-constrained agent are risk-neutral. In each of two periods, the agent can exert unobservable effort, leading to success or failure. Incentives provided in the second period act as carrot and stick for the first period, so that the effort level induced in the second period is higher after a first-period success than after a failure. If renegotiation cannot be prevented, the principal may prefer a project with lo...
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作者：Sieg, Holger; Zhang, Jipeng
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Nanyang Technological University
摘要：This article provides an empirical analysis of the role that private benefits play in explaining charitable donations to large cultural and environmental organizations. We develop a multiple discrete choice model with differentiated products. We estimate the model using a unique data set of donor lists for the 10 largest cultural and environmental charitable organizations in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area. We find that some private benefits such as invitations to private dinner parties and s...
