GLOBAL BUSINESS CYCLES: CONVERGENCE OR DECOUPLING?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher; Prasad, Eswar
• 署名单位: University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia; International Monetary Fund; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Cornell University
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2354.2012.00690.x
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 511-538
• 关键词: aggregate fluctuations; WORLD; real; specialization; TRADE; MODEL

摘要

We analyze the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 19602008. Using a dynamic factor model, we decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in output, consumption, and investment into a global factor, factors specific to country groups, and country-specific factors. We find that during 19852008, there is some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among industrial economies and among emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there is a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. We conclude that there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.