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作者：Mix, Carter
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This article examines the relationship between export churning and the aggregate response to trade policy. I show that export churning-the share of bilateral exports by new or exiting exporters-varies systematically across export destinations and build a multicountry model with destination-specific investments in exporting capacity that is consistent with churning patterns. The model then predicts that trade liberalizations with minor export destinations deliver higher bilateral export growth ...
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作者：Kocherlakota, Narayana R. R.
作者单位：University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This article studies the public debt implications of an analytically tractable class of incomplete insurance macroeconomic models in which agents face a near-zero probability of a highly adverse outcome. In generic models of this kind, there exists a public debt bubble, so that the real interest rate is perpetually below the growth rate (set to zero). There is no upper bound on the deficit level or debt level that is sustainable in a bubbly equilibrium. In a public debt bubble, ex ante steady-...
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作者：Pellegrino, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Caggiano, Giovanni
作者单位：Aarhus University; University of Padua; Monash University
摘要：We employ a nonlinear proxy-VAR approach to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the Great Recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE framework that we employ to quantify the output loss due to the large uncertainty shock that materialized in 2008Q4. We find such a shock to be able to explain about 60% of the output loss in the 2008-2014 period. Our model also points to the powerful role played by the Fed...
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作者：Riboni, Alessandro; Ruge-Murcia, Francisco
作者单位：Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; McGill University
摘要：This article examines the influence exerted by the Federal Reserve chair on monetary policy decisions. We construct a voting model where the chair selects the proposal that is initially put to a vote but is subject to an acceptance constraint that incorporates the preferences of the median Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member and the probability of counterproposals. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood using real-time data from FOMC meetings. Results for all chairs in our sample...
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作者：Aghion, Philippe; Akcigit, Ufuk; Hyytinen, Ari; Toivanen, Otto
作者单位：University of Chicago; Hanken School of Economics; Aalto University
摘要：Why is invention strongly positively correlated with parental income not only in the United States but also in Finland, which displays low income inequality and high social mobility? Using data on 1.45 M Finnish individuals and their parents, we find the following: (i) the positive association between parental income and off-spring probability of inventing is greatly reduced when controlling for parental education; (ii) instrumenting for the parents having an MSc degree using distance to neare...
