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作者：Li, Wenli; Meghir, Costas; Oswald, Florian
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Turin
摘要：We specify and estimate a life-cycle model of consumption, housing demand, and labor supply in an environment where individuals can file for bankruptcy and/or default on their mortgages in the presence of house price shock, income shock, and catastrophic expenditure events. A key feature of the model is that individuals differ by education, which dictates their income process and preference. We estimate the model using data on credit reports and mortgages combined with Census data. Our model d...
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作者：Peretto, Pietro F.; Valente, Simone
作者单位：Duke University; Norwegian University of Science & Technology (NTNU)
摘要：Pollution causes premature deaths but plays almost no role in macroeconomic analysis. To fill this gap, we build a tractable model of innovation-led economic growth and endogenous fertility in which production generates deadly spillovers, that is, emissions that increase mortality. Such spillovers affect income growth, population size, and welfare. They also create steady states that would not exist otherwise. Emission taxes increase population size and may even raise long-run growth if they r...
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作者：Dong, Feng; Zhou, Fei
作者单位：Tsinghua University; Hong Kong Baptist University
摘要：What is the role of production networks in inducing self-fulfilling business cycles? We construct a multisector business cycle model that features both input-output linkages and credit constraints. Our theoretical framework demonstrates that a single aggregate financial multiplier is sufficient to characterize equilibrium determinacy, which hinges on the network structure. By quantitatively assessing the possibility of indeterminate equilibria in the United States from 2000 to 2020, we discove...
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作者：Calabrese, Stephen; Epple, Dennis; Romano, Richard
作者单位：University of Sussex; Carnegie Mellon University; State University System of Florida; University of Florida
摘要：Beginning in the 1970s, many state courts declared the widespread inequality in education spending across schools a violation of their state's constitution. Funding systems then emerged providing differing approaches to state and local support of education. We develop a theoretical framework and characterize outcomes under alternative systems. Our framework has voting over policies in both state and local elections. A counterpart computational model compares equilibrium outcomes under the alte...
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作者：Atesagaoglu, Orhan Erem; Yazici, Hakki
作者单位：Sabanci University; University of Bristol
摘要：We analyze the implications of the decline in labor's share in national income for optimal Ramsey taxation. It is optimal to accompany the decline in labor share by raising capital taxes only if the labor share is falling because of a decline in competition or other mechanisms that raise the share of pure profits. This result holds under various alternative institutional arrangements that are relevant for optimal taxation of capital income. A quantitative application to the US economy shows th...
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作者：Chernis, Tony; Hauzenberger, Niko; Huber, Florian; Koop, Gary; Mitchell, James
作者单位：Bank of Canada; University of Strathclyde; Salzburg University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：Based on agent opinion analysis theory, Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) is a framework for combining predictive distributions in the face of model uncertainty. In this article, we generalize existing parametric implementations of BPS by showing how to combine competing probabilistic forecasts using interpretable Bayesian tree-based machine learning methods. We demonstrate the advantages of our approach-in terms of improved forecast accuracy and interpretability-via two macroeconomic foreca...
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作者：Chen, Xiaohong; Ju, Gaosheng; Li, Qi
作者单位：Yale University; Fudan University; Shanghai Institute of International Finance & Economics; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：This paper introduces a new location-scale quantile regression model aimed at examining the effects of macroeconomic variables on the distribution of microeconomic outcomes using repeated cross-sectional data. The model can be converted into an equivalent mean regression, enabling quantile coefficient estimation through least squares. This transformation improves computational efficiency, simplifies statistical inference for large data sets, and maintains robustness against model misspecificat...
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作者：Duffy, John; Orland, Andreas
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of Osaka; Corvinus University Budapest
摘要：We test the buffer stock model of savings behavior using a three-period intertemporal model. In one treatment, liquidity in the second period is constrained (borrowing not possible), while the unconstrained treatment has no such constraint. The buffer stock model predicts that a second-period liquidity constraint increases first-period savings. We also vary the variance of stochastic income (high or low) in a 2x2$2 \times 2$ design. While we find no evidence for the predicted liquidity constra...
