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作者：Audoly, Richard
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：I study the labor market risks associated with self-employment. I document that the self-employed are subject to larger earnings fluctuations than employees and frequently transition into unemployment. I analyze the provision of benefits targeted at these risks using a calibrated search model with (i) precautionary savings, (ii) work opportunities in paid- and self-employment, and (iii) skill heterogeneity. Extending the U.S. unemployment insurance scheme to the self-employed increases the tra...
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作者：Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.; Yoo, Hong Il
作者单位：University System of Georgia; Georgia State University; Copenhagen Business School; Durham University; Loughborough University; University of Cape Town
摘要：Claims that individuals have dynamically inconsistent preferences are usually made by studying individual discount rates over different time delays, but where those discount rates are elicited at a single point in time. However, to test dynamic inconsistency one has to know if the same subject has a different discounting function at a later point in time. We evaluate data from a longitudinal field experiment undertaken with a nationally representative sample of the adult Danish population. We ...
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作者：Bastani, Spencer; Blumkin, Tomer; Micheletto, Luca
作者单位：Uppsala University; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); Ben-Gurion University of the Negev; University of Milan
摘要：We develop a theory of optimal income and education taxation under asymmetric information between firms and workers. Our results show that a max-min optimal tax code can achieve predistribution by pooling wages across ability levels, conditional on income. We identify conditions under which the optimal solution leads to pooling or separating equilibria, highlighting bidirectional incentive constraints. Implementation requires nonlinear income taxes coupled with education subsidies or mandates....
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作者：Atesagaoglu, Orhan Erem; Yazici, Hakki
作者单位：Sabanci University; University of Bristol
摘要：We analyze the implications of the decline in labor's share in national income for optimal Ramsey taxation. It is optimal to accompany the decline in labor share by raising capital taxes only if the labor share is falling because of a decline in competition or other mechanisms that raise the share of pure profits. This result holds under various alternative institutional arrangements that are relevant for optimal taxation of capital income. A quantitative application to the US economy shows th...
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作者：Chernis, Tony; Hauzenberger, Niko; Huber, Florian; Koop, Gary; Mitchell, James
作者单位：Bank of Canada; University of Strathclyde; Salzburg University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：Based on agent opinion analysis theory, Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) is a framework for combining predictive distributions in the face of model uncertainty. In this article, we generalize existing parametric implementations of BPS by showing how to combine competing probabilistic forecasts using interpretable Bayesian tree-based machine learning methods. We demonstrate the advantages of our approach-in terms of improved forecast accuracy and interpretability-via two macroeconomic foreca...
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作者：Dong, Feng; Zhou, Fei
作者单位：Tsinghua University; Hong Kong Baptist University
摘要：What is the role of production networks in inducing self-fulfilling business cycles? We construct a multisector business cycle model that features both input-output linkages and credit constraints. Our theoretical framework demonstrates that a single aggregate financial multiplier is sufficient to characterize equilibrium determinacy, which hinges on the network structure. By quantitatively assessing the possibility of indeterminate equilibria in the United States from 2000 to 2020, we discove...
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作者：Luo, Jie; Wang, Cheng
作者单位：University of International Business & Economics; Fudan University
摘要：We present a macro view of China's financial system where a monopolistic banking sector coexists endogenously with bonds and private loans. In equilibrium smaller firms raise finance from private lending, larger firms through bank loans, and the largest by issuing bonds. The model predicts that expanding credit supply increases bank loans but reduces bond finance and private lending, in absolute terms and relative to total credit. In addition, removing the interest rate ceiling on bank lending...
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作者：Mathes, Sophie M.
摘要：I estimate a dynamic location choice model using data on 3.7 million seniors from 2001 to 2013. Choices depend on preferences and beliefs regarding longevity and the future evolution of health and wealth in different locations. The model accommodates heterogeneous preferences. Willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates for milder winters are relatively uniform and positive. WTP for cooler summers exhibits heterogeneity. Under a business as usual climate change counterfactual, 1.9% of individuals would...
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作者：Oh, Joonseok; Picco, Anna Rogantini
作者单位：University of Southampton; European Central Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Households' income heterogeneity is important to explain consumption dynamics in response to aggregate macro uncertainty: an increase in uncertainty generates a consumption drop that is stronger for lower-income households. At the same time, labor markets are strongly responsive to macro uncertainty. A heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with search-and-matching frictions in the labor market can account for these empirical findings. The mechanism at play is a feedback loop between lower-in...
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作者：Greinecker, Michael; Kuzmics, Christoph
作者单位：University of Graz
摘要：A wide variety of financial instruments allows risk-averse traders to reduce their exposure to risk. This raises the question of what financial instruments allow ambiguity-averse traders to reduce their exposure to ambiguity. We show in this paper that price-contingent orders, such as limit orders, are sufficient: In a two-period trading model, an ambiguity-averse trader who trades with limit orders is observationally indistinguishable from an ambiguity-neutral trader with the same risk prefer...
