MACRO UNCERTAINTY, UNEMPLOYMENT RISK, AND CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Oh, Joonseok; Picco, Anna Rogantini
• 署名单位: University of Southampton; European Central Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12730
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 287-312
• 关键词: monetary-policy; job destruction; shocks; MODEL; INEQUALITY; frictions

摘要

Households' income heterogeneity is important to explain consumption dynamics in response to aggregate macro uncertainty: an increase in uncertainty generates a consumption drop that is stronger for lower-income households. At the same time, labor markets are strongly responsive to macro uncertainty. A heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with search-and-matching frictions in the labor market can account for these empirical findings. The mechanism at play is a feedback loop between lower-income households who, being subject to higher unemployment risk, contract consumption more in response to heightened uncertainty, and firms that post fewer vacancies following a drop in demand.