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作者：McKinnon, R
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作者：Jorion, P
摘要：This paper investigates the validity of Real Interest Parity (RIP) for long maturities across the US, Britain and Germany. A standard view, commonly referred to as the Fisher hypothesis, is that, over long horizons, movements in expected inflation dominate movements in nominal interest rates, or that real interest rates are equal. Over the 1973-1991 sample period, however, rejections of conditional RIP occur at all horizons, extending from a quarter to five years. The evidence indicates that t...
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作者：Ethier, WJ; Markusen, JR
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：Attempts to add multinational firms to the 'new' trade theories generate predictions about direct investment dramatically at odds with the facts. A failure to treat internalization adequately seems responsible at least in part. Empirical evidence also indicates a close association between multinational firms and knowledge capital; we exploit this to examine the role of internalization and its relation to locational factors. We model a firm which must choose between costly exporting and the pos...
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作者：Kamin, SB; Rogers, JH
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：This paper evaluates the extent to which Mexican monetary policy in 1994 may have loosened, or not tightened sufficiently, in the lead up to the devaluation. Using econometric models of money demand, we find evidence that the high monetary base growth reflected strong positive shocks to the demand for money, not supply. Next, we show that interest rates rose only moderately less in 1994 than was predicted by an estimated reaction function. Thus to have maintained the peg, the authorities would...
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作者：Irwin, DA; Klenow, PJ
摘要：Sparked by concerns about their shrinking market share, 14 leading U.S. semiconductor producers, with the financial assistance of the U.S. government in the form of $100 million in annual subsidies, formed a joint R&D consortium - Sematech - in 1987. Using Compustat data on all U.S. semiconductor firms, we estimate the effects of Sematech on members' R&D spending, profitability, investment, and productivity. In so doing we examine two hypotheses: the 'commitment' hypothesis that Sematech oblig...
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作者：Frankel, JA; Rose, AK
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Previous time-series studies have shown evidence of mean-reversion in real exchange rates. Deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) appear to have half-lives of approximately four years. However, the long samples required for statistical significance are unavailable for most currencies, and are potentially inappropriate because of regime changes. In this study, we re-examine deviations from PPP using a panel of 150 countries and 45 annual post WWII observations. Our panel shows strong evi...
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作者：Atkeson, A; RiosRull, JV
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：In this paper we develop a model in which a country faces a balance of payments crisis if constraints on its international borrowing bind. We use the model to describe the dynamics of the trade balance, capital account, and balance of payments of a country that borrows to finance consumption following sweeping macroeconomic and structural reforms and then hits constraints on its international borrowing. We compare the predictions of this theoretical example with events in Mexico from 1987 thro...
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作者：Barnett, RC; Ho, MS
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; University at Buffalo, SUNY; Harvard University
摘要：This paper explores some issues surrounding inflationary finance of government deficits in a two-country world with currency substitution. Each country's monetary policy is assumed to be subordinate to fiscal policy. Private agents, knowing that the monetary authorities cannot commit themselves to fixed policy rules, substitute among the two monies. Each monetary authority is then forced to accomodate the actions of the fiscal authorities and private agents by setting monetary growth rates con...
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作者：Cabral, CC
摘要：A general model of debt repurchases is built which reconciles most points raised in the literature on buybacks. The inclusion of assets alternative to domestic investment is shown to be of crucial importance in the analysis and leads to the reversal of some previous results. It is shown that investment necessarily rises following a buyback, independently of the source of the funds used. The condition that determines whether or not buybacks are an attractive solution to the debtor is derived. I...
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作者：Cunha, LCE; Santos, V
摘要：We rationalize the puzzling existence of binding quotas that are not fully utilized. Our model has its roots in Bhagwati (1965, in: R. Baldwin et al., eds., Trade, growth and the balance of payments: Essays in honor of G. Haberler (MIT Press, New York)) on tariffs/quotas equivalence and is related to the IO literature on pre-emption. We study the conditions that lead a monopolist, facing a quota-restricted market, to buy the quota licenses itself and the conditions under which they may remain ...
