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作者：Kumhof, M
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：The quantitative implications of a model of balance of payments crises are explored. The model analyzes government sterilization of capital outflows through low interest rates on domestic debt. This prevents a collapse in money demand but instead leads to a collapse in bond demand and therefore an increase in central bank domestic credit. The theory's implications are consistent with the Mexican experience of 1994, but much less so with Indonesia in 1997 and Brazil in 1998. (C) 2000 Elsevier S...
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作者：Feenstra, RC; Rose, AK
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
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作者：Kaneko, A
作者单位：Institute of Science Tokyo; Tokyo Institute of Technology
摘要：By incorporating human capital accumulation into a dynamic trade model, we examine the relationship between the growth rate and the specialization pattern of a growing economy. We found that as long as its autarky price differs from the world price, a small open-economy eventually specializes completely. Furthermore, the impact of the terms of trade on the growth rate depends on the trade pattern. Specifically, if a country specializes in a capital commodity, the growth rate is unaffected by t...
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作者：Turunen-Red, AH; Woodland, AD
作者单位：University of Sydney; University of Louisiana System; University of New Orleans
摘要：We specify a many-nation, many-commodity model of international trade involving tariff and quota distortions. We derive conditions for the existence of strict Pareto improving multilateral reforms of quotas, and obtain recommendations for specific directions of such quota reforms. Given a mild rank condition on the world trade matrix, all directions of quota reform that attain a strict Pareto improvement using international lump sum compensation remain strict Pareto improving even without lump...
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作者：Backus, DK; Crucini, MJ
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The combination of substantial terms of trade variability and unstable correlation patterns of trade prices with output and trade volumes has led some to suggest a break in the link between trade volumes and prices. We find that oil accounts for much of the variation in the terms of trade over the last twenty five years and its quantitative role varies significantly over time. And since our dynamic general equilibrium model predicts that the economy responds differently to oil supply shocks th...
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作者：Gross, DM; Schmitt, N
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Simon Fraser University
摘要：This paper explicitly takes into account the dynamic oligopolistic rivalry among source producers to evaluate the degree of exchange-rate pass-through. Using recent time-series techniques for the case of imported automobiles in Switzerland, the results show that prices are strategic complements and that the degree of pass-through is lower in the long run than in the short run. This is due to the fact that, although some rivals match long-term price changes, others do not, inducing the producer...
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作者：Lockwood, B; Wong, K
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Warwick
摘要：This note argues that when two countries choose optimal tariffs in a trade war, specific tariffs are not equivalent to ad valorem tariffs even if all markets are competitive. In particular, it shows that if a country's trading partner switches from a specific tariff to an ad valorem tariff that yields the same revenue at the initial trade point, the former country has an incentive to lower its tariff. When two identical countries choose the types acid magnitudes of tariffs in a two-stage game,...
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作者：Calvo, GA
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：The central question raised in this paper is the desirability of state-contingent contracts under imperfect policy credibility. The paper shows a benchmark case in which imperfect credibility of a trade liberalization program is distorting, and the distortion is magnified by state-contingent markets. in addition, it examines the welfare implications of gaining credibility, concluding that, in general, more credibility is better than less, and examines the moral hazard faced by policymakers in ...
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作者：Leamer, EE
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：The net imports of labor embodied in US international trade has been a fairly small and stable share of the US labor force. From this fact one would like to draw two conclusions: (1) Trade barriers would not have had much effect on earnings. (2) It is technology, not trade that is the driving force for rising income inequality in the US. The first conclusion is valid if the US economy is log-linear and the number of tradables is equal to the number of factors. The second is valid if the global...
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作者：Flood, RP; Marion, NP
作者单位：Dartmouth College; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We show that changing market beliefs about currency risk can generate a self-fulfilling speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate. The attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable. We illustrate this point by introducing an endogenous risk premium into a first-generation model of a speculative attack. The model is further modified to take account of sterilization, debt-financed fiscal deficits and anticipatory price-setting behavior. We use the model to interpret ...
