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作者：Clarida, RH; Sarno, L; Taylor, MP; Valente, G
作者单位：University of Warwick; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：A large literature suggests that standard exchange rate models cannot outperform a random walk forecast and that the forward rate is not an optimal predictor of the spot rate. However, there is evidence that the term structure of forward premia contains valuable information for forecasting future spot exchange rates and that exchange rate dynamics display nonlinearities. This paper proposes a term-structure forecasting model of exchange rates based on a regime-switching vector equilibrium corr...
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作者：Ederington, J; McCalman, P
作者单位：University of Miami; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
摘要：Recent research has highlighted the efficiency of the MFN principle within the GATT/WTO structure. This paper analyzes the exception made to MFN within Article XXIII that allows discriminatory punishment for deviations from the agreement. We argue that, in the absence of collusion, the MFN exception reduces the severity of punishment and thus lowers the level of cooperation that can be achieved by the agreement. However, discriminatory punishment may still be beneficial as we show that it redu...
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作者：Harrison, AE; McMillan, MS
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Tufts University
摘要：Firms in developing countries cite credit constraints as one of their primary obstacles to investment. Direct foreign investment may ease credit constraints by bringing in scarce capital. Alternatively, if foreign firms borrow heavily from domestic banks, they may crowd local firms out of domestic capital markets. Using firm data from the Ivory Coast, we test whether: (1) domestic firms are more credit constrained than foreign firms, and (2) whether borrowing by foreign firms exacerbates domes...
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作者：Irwin, DA
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Dartmouth College
摘要：The US produced about 80% of the world's cotton in the decades prior to the Civil War. How much monopoly power did the US possess in the world cotton market and what would have been the effect of an optimal export tax? This paper estimates the elasticity of foreign demand for US cotton exports and uses the elasticity in a simple partial equilibrium model to calculate the optimal export tax and its effect on prices, trade, and welfare. The results indicate that the export demand elasticity for ...
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作者：Qiu, LD
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
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作者：Kim, J; Kim, SH
作者单位：University of Virginia; Tufts University
摘要：Several papers have documented spurious welfare reversals: incomplete-markets economy produces a higher level of welfare than the complete-markets economy. This paper first demonstrates how conventional linearization can generate approximation errors that can result in welfare reversals. Using a two-country production economy, we argue that spurious welfare reversals are not only possible but also plausible under reasonable values for model parameters. This paper then proposes an approximation...
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作者：Kilian, L; Taylor, MP
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank
摘要：Recent empirical evidence suggests that the time series behavior of the real exchange rate is well approximated by a nonlinear, exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) model. This nonlinearity helps resolve a number of puzzles concerning the persistence and volatility of real exchange rates. In this paper, we explore whether it may also help resolve the well-known difficulties of exchange rate forecasting. We develop a bootstrap test of the random walk hypothesis of the nominal ex...
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作者：Kim, J; Kim, SH; Levin, A
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Virginia; Tufts University
摘要：We investigate the welfare implications of alternative financial market structures in a two-country endowment economy model. We obtain an analytic expression for the expected lifetime utility of the representative household when sovereign bonds are the only internationally traded asset, and we compare this welfare level with that obtained under complete asset markets. The welfare cost of incomplete markets is negligible if agents are very patient and shocks are not very persistent, but this co...
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作者：McAusland, C
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
摘要：This paper analyzes how openness and the distribution of factor ownership interact to determine individual and aggregate demand for pollution policy. Analysis of voter preferences in autarky shows that an increased stake in either the dirty or the clean industry can induce an individual voter to prefer stricter environmental policy. Similarly, the paper shows that poorer voters may be the greener voters within an electorate. The model also reveals that the incidence of pollution policy depends...
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作者：Domaç, K; Peria, MSM
作者单位：The World Bank; Prime Ministry Turkey; Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
摘要：This paper investigates the linkages between banking crises and exchange rate regimes, using a comprehensive cross-country dataset for the last two decades. The paper examines whether the choice of exchange rate regime affects the likelihood, cost, and duration of banking crises. Empirical results seem to indicate that adopting a fixed exchange rate diminishes the likelihood of banking crises among developing countries. However, once crises occur, the real costs associated with them appear to ...
