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作者：Gourinchas, PO; Tornell, A
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We propose a new explanation for the foreign exchange forward-premium and delayed-overshooting puzzles. We show that both puzzles arise from a systematic distortion in investors' beliefs about the interest rate process. Accordingly, the forward premium is always a biased predictor of future depreciation; the bias can be so severe as to lead to negative coefficients in the 'Fama' regression. Delayed overshooting may or may not occur depending upon the persistence of interest rate innovations an...
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作者：Dewit, G; Leahy, D
作者单位：Maynooth University; University College Dublin
摘要：This paper examines optimal trade policy in a two-period oligopoly model, with a home and a foreign firm choosing capital and output. Demand uncertainty, resolved in period two, gives rise to a trade-off between strategic commitment and flexibility in the firms' investment decisions. Finns' investment timing is endogenous and can be manipulated by the home government, which sets a subsidy before firms decide when to invest. We show that when the government wishes to manipulate investment timin...
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作者：Aizenman, J; Marion, N
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; National Bureau of Economic Research; Dartmouth College
摘要：We examine the impact of uncertainty on vertical and horizontal FDI. Our model shows that greater supply uncertainty reduces the expected income from vertical FDI but increases the expected income from horizontal FDI. Greater demand uncertainty adversely affects the expected income under both production modes. Uncertainty about predatory actions by the host country is more costly to the multinational under vertical than under the horizontal mode. We examine sales by foreign affiliates of U.S. ...
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作者：Cheung, YW; Lai, KS; Bergman, M
作者单位：California State University System; California State University Los Angeles; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; Lund University
摘要：The conventional view, as expounded by sticky-price models, is that price adjustment determines the PPP reversion rate. This study examines the mechanism by which PPP deviations are corrected. Nominal exchange rate adjustment, not price adjustment, is shown to be the key engine governing the speed of PPP convergence. Moreover, nominal exchange rates are found to converge much more slowly than prices. With the reversion being driven primarily by nominal exchange rates, real exchange rates also ...
