-
作者：Reinhardt, Dennis; Ricci, Luca Antonio; Tressel, Thierry
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：Does capital flow from rich to poor countries? We revisit the Lucas paradox to account for the role of capital account openness. We find that, when accounting for such openness, the prediction of the neoclassical theory is empirically confirmed: among financially open economies, less developed countries tend to experience net capital inflows and more developed countries tend to experience net capital outflows. The results hold also when taking into account private flows, institutions, and nume...
-
作者：Durdu, C. Bora; Nunes, Ricardo; Sapriza, Horacio
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper builds a unified model of sovereign debt, default risk, and news shocks. News shocks improve the quantitative performance of the sovereign default model in a number of empirically-relevant dimensions. First, with news shocks, not all defaults occur during downturns. Second, the news shocks help account for key differences between developing and more developed economies: as the precision of news improves, the model predicts lower variability of consumption, less countercyclical trade...
-
作者：Bastos, Paulo; Straume, Odd Rune; Urrego, Jaime A.
作者单位：The World Bank; Universidade do Minho; University of Bergen; Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：We examine whether and how rainfall shocks affect tariff setting in the agricultural sector. In a model of strategic trade policy, we show that the impact of a negative rainfall shock on optimal import tariffs is generally ambiguous, depending on the weight placed by the domestic policy maker on tariff revenue, profits and the consumer surplus. The more weight placed on domestic profits, the more likely it is that the policy maker will respond to a rainfall shortage by reducing import tariffs....
-
作者：Ederington, Josh; McCalman, Phillip
作者单位：University of Kentucky; University of Melbourne
摘要：We integrate trade policy into an open-economy model of technology adoption to investigate the impact of alternate trade barriers on the equilibrium diffusion of a cost-saving technology. It is shown that even when ad-valorem tariffs have a neutral impact on technology adoption, non-tariff barriers such as quotas can be used to affect the speed of technology diffusion in both the home and foreign countries. In addition, we demonstrate how, in an open-economy setting, tariffication (i.e., the c...
-
作者：di Giovanni, Julian; Levchenko, Andrei A.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Firm size follows Zipf's Law, a very fat-tailed distribution that implies a few large firms account for a disproportionate share of overall economic activity. This distribution of firm size is crucial for evaluating the welfare impact of economic policies such as barriers to entry or trade liberalization. Using a multi-country model of production and trade calibrated to the observed distribution of firm size, we show that the welfare impact of high entry costs is small. In the sample of the 50...
-
作者：Fugazza, Marco; Nicita, Alessandro
摘要：The proliferation of preferential trade agreements has resulted in a complex system of preferences in which market access conditions are often discriminatory. In this paper we investigate how market access conditions have evolved between 2000 and 2009, and how this has affected international trade. Our results show that the proliferation of preferential access has increased bilateral trade not only due to lower tariffs but also because preferential access often resulted in higher preferential ...
-
作者：Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Papaioannou, Elias; Perri, Fabrizio
作者单位：Koc University; Harvard University; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：We study the effect of financial integration (through banks) on the transmission of international business cycles. In a sample of 18/20 developed countries between 1978 and 2009 we find that, in periods without financial crises, increases in bilateral banking linkages are associated with more divergent output cycles. This relation is significantly weaker during financial turmoil periods, suggesting that financial crises induce co-movement among more financially integrated countries. We also sh...
-
作者：Ahsan, Reshad N.
作者单位：University of Melbourne
摘要：This paper extends the literature on trade liberalization and firm productivity (TFP) by examining the complementarities between the speed of contract enforcement and the productivity gains from input tariff liberalization. It does so by using firm-level panel data from India along with an objective measure of judicial efficiency at the state level. The results suggest that for a 10 percentage point decline in input tariffs, firms in the state at the 75th percentile of judicial efficiency gain...
-
作者：Balke, Nathan S.; Ma, Jun; Wohar, Mark E.
作者单位：Southern Methodist University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; University of Alabama System; University of Alabama Tuscaloosa; University of Nebraska System
摘要：Starting from the asset pricing approach of Engel and West, we examine the degree to which fundamentals can explain exchange rate fluctuations. We show that it is not possible to obtain sharp inferences about the relative contribution of fundamentals using only data on observed monetary fundamentals-money minus output differentials across countries-and exchange rates. We use additional data on interest rate and price differentials along with the implications of the monetary model of exchange r...
-
作者：Bruelhart, Marius; Carrere, Celine; Trionfetti, Federico
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Geneva; Aix-Marseille Universite
