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作者：Dias, Daniel A.; Richmond, Christine; Wright, Mark L. J.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The stock of sovereign debt is typically measured at face value. Defined as the undiscounted sum of future principal repayments, face values are misleading when debts are issued with different contractual forms or maturities. In this paper, we construct alternative measures of the stock of external sovereign debt for 100 developing countries from 1979 through 2006 that correct for differences in contractual form and maturity. We show that our alternative measures: (1) paint a very different qu...
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作者：Fernandes, Ana P.; Tang, Heiwai
作者单位：University of Exeter; Johns Hopkins University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：This paper studies how learning from neighboring firms affects new exporters' performance. We develop a statistical decision model in which a firm updates its prior belief about demand in a foreign market based on several factors, including the number of neighbors currently selling there, the level and heterogeneity of their export sales, and the firm's own prior knowledge about the market. A positive signal about demand inferred from neighbors' export performance raises the firm's probability...
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作者：Simonovska, Ina; Waugh, Michael E.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University
摘要：Quantitative results from a large class of structural gravity models of international trade depend critically on the elasticity of trade with respect to trade frictions. We develop a new simulated method of moments estimator to estimate this elasticity from disaggregate price and trade-flow data and we use it within Eaton and Kortum's (2002) Ricardian model. We apply our estimator to disaggregate price and trade-flow data for 123 countries in the year 2004. Our method yields a trade elasticity...
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作者：Huett, Hannes; Krapf, Matthias; Uysal, S. Derya
作者单位：University of Konstanz; University of Zurich
摘要：Using unique data from an internet-based foreign-exchange trading platform, we show that the black market efficiently incorporated public information on the state of the Belarusian economy during the Balance of Payments crisis of 2011. Between May and October 2011, the government repeatedly devalued the Belarusian ruble and eventually abandoned its fixed exchange rate regime. Measures derived from black market transaction data have significant predictive power for these devaluations. The signi...
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作者：Santos Silva, J. M. C.; Tenreyro, Silvana; Wei, Kehai
作者单位：University of Essex; Universidade de Lisboa; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Understanding and quantifying the determinants of the number of sectors or firms exporting in a given country is of relevance for the assessment of trade policies. Estimation of models for the number of exporting sectors, however, poses a challenge because the dependent variable has both a lower and an upper bound, implying that the partial effects of the explanatory variables on the conditional mean of the dependent variable cannot be constant. We argue that ignoring these bounds can lead to ...
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作者：Kim, Sunghyun H.; Kose, M. Ayhan
作者单位：Sungkyunkwan University (SKKU); Suffolk University; International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper studies the welfare implications of revenue-neutral trade liberalization and fiscal reform programs for developing economies using a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We analyze how different combinations of tariffs - on imported consumption goods, intermediate inputs, and capital goods - and taxes - on consumption, labor income and capital income - affect the transitional and long-run welfare. We report three main findings. First, trade liberal...
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作者：Hevia, Constantino
作者单位：Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
摘要：Aggregate fluctuations in emerging countries are different from those in developed countries. Using data from Mexico and Canada, this paper decomposes these differences in terms of reduced form shocks that affect aggregate efficiency and distort the decisions of households about how much to invest, consume, and work in a standard model of a small open economy. The decomposition exercise suggests that most of these differences are explained by fluctuations in aggregate efficiency, distortions i...
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作者：Campolmi, Alessia; Fadinger, Harald; Forlati, Chiara
作者单位：Central European University; University of Vienna; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne
摘要：We study trade policy in a two-sector Krugman (1980) trade model, allowing for wage, import and export subsidies/taxes. We study non-cooperative trade policies, first for each individual instrument and then for the situation where all instruments can be set simultaneously, and contrast those with the efficient allocation. We show that in this general context there are four motives for non-cooperative trade policies: the correction of monopolistic distortions; the terms-of-trade manipulation; t...
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作者：Massa, Massimo; Zaldokas, Alminas
作者单位：INSEAD Business School; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：We examine international bond issues by US firms to study the benefits of investor taste for cross-border security issuances. We proxy for firms' international investor taste with the fraction of prior international bond holding in firms' domestic and international bonds and find that international investor demand increases with such taste. Moreover, the offering yield spreads on international bonds are lower than domestic offering yield spreads for these internationally recognized firms and t...
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作者：Evans, Martin D. D.; Hnatkovska, Viktoria V.
作者单位：Georgetown University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of British Columbia
摘要：International capital flows have increased dramatically since the 1980s, with much of the increase being due to trade in equity and bond markets. Such developments are often attributed to the increased integration of world financial markets. We present a model that allows us to examine how greater integration in world financial markets affects the behavior of international capital flows and financial returns. Our model predicts that international capital flows are large (in absolute value) and...
