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作者：Klasing, Mariko J.; Milionis, Petros
作者单位：University of Groningen; University of Groningen
摘要：The typical narrative regarding the evolution of world trade prior to World War II refers to a secular rise starting around 1870 and a subsequent collapse beginning in 1914. This narrative, however, is based on measures of trade openness that do not fully take into account purchasing power differences across countries. Due to lack of alternative data, the measures employed in the existing literature are typically based on non-PPP-adjusted trade data denominated by PPP-adjusted GDP data. The pr...
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作者：Lewis, Logan T.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper examines how nominal uncertainty affects the choice that firms face to serve a foreign market through exports or to produce abroad as a multinational. I develop a two-country, stochastic general equilibrium model in which firms make production and pricing decisions in advance, and I consider its implications for the relative attractiveness of exporting and multinational production. I find that when multinational sales are priced in the local currency while exports are priced in the ...
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作者：Conconi, Paola; Facchini, Giovanni; Zanardi, Maurizio
作者单位：Universite Libre de Bruxelles; University of Nottingham; University of Milan; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Lancaster University
摘要：This paper shows that electoral incentives deter politicians from supporting trade liberalization. We focus on all major trade liberalization bills introduced since the early 1970s in the U.S. Congress, in which House and Senate members serve respectively two- and six-year terms and one third of senators face elections every two years. We show that senators are more likely to support trade liberalization than House representatives. However, this result does not hold for the last generation of ...
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作者：Melitz, Jacques; Toubal, Farid
作者单位：Heriot Watt University; Paris School of Economics; Universite Paris Saclay; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris
摘要：We construct new series for common native language and common spoken language for 195 countries, which we use together with series for common official language and linguistic proximity in order to draw inferences about (1) the aggregate impact of all linguistic factors on bilateral trade, (2) the separate role of ease of communication as distinct from ethnicity and trust, and (3) the contribution of translation and interpreters to ease of communication. The results show that the impact of ling...
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作者：Benigno, Pierpaolo; Romei, Federica
作者单位：Luiss Guido Carli University
摘要：Deleveraging from high debt can provoke deep recession with significant international side effects. Swings in the nominal exchange rate and large variations in consumption, output, and terms of trade can happen during the adjustment. All these movements are inefficient and interesting trade-offs emerge from the perspective of global welfare. The optimal adjustment to global imbalances should not necessarily require large movements in the nominal exchange rate. A global liquidity trap can be de...
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作者：Cho, Dooyeon; Doblas-Madrid, Antonio
作者单位：Kookmin University; Michigan State University
摘要：In this paper, we seek to contribute to the PPP literature by presenting evidence of a link between trade intensity and exchange rate dynamics. We first establish a negative effect of trade intensity on exchange rate volatility using panel regressions, with distance as an instrument to correct for endogeneity. We also estimate a nonlinear model of mean reversion to compute half-lives of deviations of bilateral exchange rates from the levels dictated by relative PPP, and find these half-lives t...
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作者：Schwarz, Christian; Suedekum, Jens
作者单位：University of Duisburg Essen; Heinrich Heine University Dusseldorf; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：We develop a theory of a firm in an incomplete contracts environment which decides on the complexity, the organization, and the global scale of its production process. Specifically, the firm decides i) how many intermediate inputs are simultaneously combined to a final product, ii) if the supplier of each input is an external contractor or an integrated affiliate, and iii) if that input is offshored to a foreign country. Our model leads to a rich set of predictions on the internal structure of...
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作者：Holmes, Thomas J.; Hsu, Wen-Tai; Lee, Sanghoon
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Singapore Management University; University of British Columbia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper develops an index of allocative efficiency that depends upon the distribution of mark-ups across goods and is separable from an index of standard Ricardian gains from trade. It determines how changes in trade frictions affect allocative efficiency in an oligopoly model of international trade, decomposing the effect into the cost-change channel and the price-change channel. Formulas are derived shedding light on the signs and magnitudes of the two channels. In symmetric country model...
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作者：Catao, Luis A. V.; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970-2011, we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities to GDP is a significant crisis predictor. This is primarily due to the net position in debt instruments the effect of net equity liabilities is weaker and net FDI liabilities seem, if anything, an offset factor. We also find that: i) breaking down net e...
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作者：Keen, Michael; Kotsogiannis, Christos
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Exeter; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：This paper explores the role of trade instruments in globally efficient climate policies, focusing on whether or not some form of border tax adjustment (BTA) is warranted when carbon prices differ internationally. The analysis shows that, while there is no case for BTA when all instruments can be freely deployed, Pareto-efficiency does require a form of BTA when carbon taxes in some countries are constrained: its purpose then is to partly counteract the impact on emissions of inappropriate car...
