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作者：FISCHER, S
摘要：Using a regression analog of growth accounting, I present cross-sectional and panel regressions showing that growth is negatively associated with inflation, large budget deficits, and distorted foreign exchange markets. Supplementary evidence suggests that the causation runs from macroeconomic policy to growth. The framework makes it possible to identify the channels of these effects: inflation reduces growth by reducing investment and productivity growth; budget deficits also reduce both capi...
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作者：ROMER, P
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：A nation that lacks physical objects like factories and roads suffers from an object gap. A nation that lacks the knowledge used to create value in a modern economy suffers from an idea gap. Object gaps are emphasized by mainstream economists who make use of formal models and statistical hypothesis tests. Idea gaps are emphasized by dissident economists who make use of a diverse body of evidence and avoid formal models. Economists need to use the formal models from the first approach and the d...
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作者：MCQUEEN, G; THORLEY, S
摘要：This paper presents evidence that business cycles are characterized by 'sharp' troughs and 'round' peaks. Changes in growth rates surrounding NBER troughs are found to be larger than changes surrounding peaks, and the probability of a direct contraction to recovery transition is found to be higher than the probability of a direct recovery to contraction transition. These findings suggest caution in interpreting empirical tests of economic series that assume symmetry and motivate theoretic mode...
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作者：KING, RG; LEVINE, R
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; The World Bank
摘要：How do financial systems affect economic growth? We construct an endogenous growth model in which financial systems evaluate prospective entrepreneurs, mobilize savings to finance the most promising productivity-enhancing activities, diversify the risks associated with these innovative activities, and reveal the expected profits from engaging in innovation rather than the production of existing goods using existing methods. Better financial systems improve the probability of successful innovat...
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作者：HUANG, CH; LIN, KS
作者单位：National Taiwan University
摘要：Barro's tax smoothing hypothesis (TSH) implies that the government runs a 'budget deficit' whenever it anticipates the growth rate of national income to increase or the growth rate of its expenditure to decline. We test this implication of the hypothesis by examining the implied cross-equation restrictions on a vector autoregression (VAR) model using U.S. data for the period ranging from 1929 to 1988. Our formal tests reject the hypothesis for the full sample period, but cannot reject it for t...
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作者：[Anonymous]
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作者：DELONG, JB; SUMMERS, LH
作者单位：United States Department of the Treasury; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We extend and improve the database used in De Long and Summers (1991) and, focusing on developing economies, find that there is a very strong growth-equipment investment association even when rich industrialized economies are not considered. Rapid growth is found where equipment investment is low. If there is a region where the post-WWII growth-equipment nexus is weak, it is the well-integrated and very rich region of western Europe - not the developing world.
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作者：DEGREGORIO, J
摘要：This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and growth in an endogenous growth framework. Two models that illustrate different channels through which inflation affects growth are presented. They emphasize the effect of inflation on the rate of investment and on the productivity of investment, respectively. Then, inflation is considered to be part of a public finance problem, where high rates of inflation are the result of inefficiencies in the tax system. The negative relationsh...
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作者：EASTERLY, W; KREMER, M; PRITCHETT, L; SUMMERS, LH
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); United States Department of the Treasury
摘要：Much of the new growth literature stresses country characteristics, such as education levels or political stability, as the dominant determinant of growth. However, growth rates are highly unstable over time, with a correlation across decades of 0.1 to 0.3, while country characteristics are stable, with cross-decade correlations of 0.6 to 0.9. Shocks, especially those to terms of trade, play a large role in explaining variance in growth. These findings suggest either that shocks are important ...
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作者：STARRMCCLUER, M
摘要：To investigate how sectoral demand shifts affect cyclical unemployment, studies by Murphy-Topel and Loungani-Rogerson examine whether labor mobility rises in recession. Results are contradictory, depending on a priori assumptions about unfinished unemployment spells. This note uses monthly data from the early 1980s and a competing risks hazard approach to overcome this problem. Results confirm the Loungani-Rogerson finding of higher respecialization in recession; however, the countercyclicalit...
