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作者：ANGELINI, P
摘要：I argue that in order to test for the effect of the foundation of the Federal Reserve on the behavior of short-term interest rates, extending the sample size on either side of the interval 1908-1918 will generate spurious results. Mankiw, Miron, and Weil (1987, 1994) do not address data problems pointed out by other authors, nor do they take into account some historical events and institutional changes in New York money market that had an impact on the behavior of short-term interest rates. Gi...
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作者：CHAMP, B; WALLACE, N; WEBER, WE
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Fordham University; University of Miami; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：According to previous studies, the demand-liability feature of national bank notes did not present a problem for note-issuing banks because the nonbank public treated notes and other currency as perfect substitutes. However, that view, when combined with nonbindingness of the collateral restriction against note issue, itself an implication of the fact that some eligible collateral was not used for that purpose, implies that the safe short-term interest rate is pegged at the tax rate on note ci...
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作者：INGRAM, BF; KOCHERLAKOTA, NR; SAVIN, NE
摘要：Aiyagari (1992) and Prescott (1986, 1991) claim that a large fraction of the variance of United States quarterly detrended real GNP is attributable to an unobservable shock to total factor productivity. This paper argues that the importance of a productivity shock in explaining the variance of output is fundamentally indeterminate. Any model that is in accord with the several time series that make up United States macroeconomic data must feature multiple shocks that are correlated at all leads...
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作者：VANWINCOOP, E
摘要：This paper uses consumption data to compute yet unexploited welfare gains that can be achieved through risksharing among twenty OECD countries. There is both aggregate national consumption risk and nondiversifiable individual-specific risk. Countries engage in an optimal risksharing arrangement to pool risk associated with the aggregate consumption endowment streams. Welfare gains are associated with reduced consumption variability and with the international pricing of the consumption streams ...
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作者：BENHABIB, J; SPIEGEL, MM
作者单位：New York University
摘要：Using cross-country estimates of physical and human capital stocks, we run the growth accounting regressions implied by a Cobb-Douglas aggregate production function. Our results indicate that human capital enters insignificantly in explaining per capita growth rates. We next specify an alternative model in which the growth rate of total factor productivity depends on a nation's human capital stock level. Tests of this specification do indicate a positive role for human capital.
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作者：HOOVER, KD; PEREZ, SJ
摘要：Christina and David Romers' reply to our article 'Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc Once More' misses the point. Our argument was never that monetary policy did not matter, but that their methods could not provide useful evidence that it did. Yet, they offer additional evidence of the same type with respect to the efficacy of monetary shocks without effectively replying to the criticisms of their methods. We show point by point that such responses as they give leave our original conclusion intact: the...
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作者：ALNOWAIHI, A; LEVINE, P
作者单位：University of Leicester
摘要：This paper addresses three problems with 'reputational' equilibria in the Barro-Gordon monetary policy game: the multiplicity of equilibria, the coordination problem, and a 'chisel-prone' credibility problem. A 'chisel-proof' credibility condition ensures that in response to a small deviation from the low inflation rate by the central bank, it never pays for the private sector to acquiesce. If the private sector can coordinate, then a low but nonzero inflation outcome can be supported as a sub...
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作者：KING, RG; PLOSSER, CI
作者单位：University of Rochester; University of Virginia
摘要：This paper conducts a modem variant of the test proposed and carried out by Adelman and Adelman (1959). Using the methods developed by Burns and Mitchell (1946), we see if we can distinguish between the economic series generated by an actual economy and those analogous artificial series generated by a stochastically perturbed economic model. In the case of the Adelmans, the model corresponded to the Klein-Goldberger equations. In our case. the model corresponds to a simple real business cycle ...
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作者：PLOSSER, CI; ROUWENHORST, KG
作者单位：Yale University; University of Rochester
摘要：This paper extends previous work on the information in the term structure about future real economic growth. For the U.S. and Germany, and to a lesser extent for the U.K., we find evidence that the long end of the term structure has information about future growth of industrial production beyond expectations about future monetary policy. We also find evidence that foreign term structures can forecast domestic low frequency movements in economic activity especially in countries that experience ...
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作者：ANGELINI, P
摘要：The paper addresses the issue of the impact of the foundation of the Federal Reserve System in 1914 on the behavior of short-term interest rates. Empirical evidence is presented showing that no change of regime can be detected in the process governing short-term rates in the years straddling the foundation of the Fed. Since the behavior of this process did change in the decade 1910-1920, the paper discusses some historical events and institutional changes in the New York money market that had ...
