REAL BUSINESS CYCLES AND THE TEST OF THE ADELMANS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: KING, RG; PLOSSER, CI
• 署名单位: University of Rochester; University of Virginia
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/0304-3932(94)90008-6
• 发表日期: 1994
• 页码: 405-438
• 关键词: BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS; business cycles; FORECASTING AND SIMULATION

摘要

This paper conducts a modem variant of the test proposed and carried out by Adelman and Adelman (1959). Using the methods developed by Burns and Mitchell (1946), we see if we can distinguish between the economic series generated by an actual economy and those analogous artificial series generated by a stochastically perturbed economic model. In the case of the Adelmans, the model corresponded to the Klein-Goldberger equations. In our case. the model corresponds to a simple real business cycle model. The results indicate a fairly high degree of coincidence in key economic aggregates between the business cycle characteristics identified in actual data and those found in our simulated economy.