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作者：BOSCHEN, JF; MILLS, LO
作者单位：Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae)
摘要：We present tests of long-run monetary neutrality using an empirical framework that allows for the effects of real shocks on the long-run behavior of both output and monetary aggregates. Our findings support long-run monetary neutrality as a feature of the post World War II U.S, economy. We further find that permanent innovations in labor supply, as measured by working-age population, are a principal factor in the long-run movements in U.S, output and monetary aggregates.
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作者：GLAESER, EL; SCHEINKMAN, JA; SHLEIFER, A
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：We examine the relationship between urban characteristics in 1960 and urban growth between 1960 and 1990. Income and population growth move together, and both types of growth are (1) positively related to initial schooling, (2) negatively related to initial unemployment, and (3) negatively related to the initial share of employment in manufacturing. Racial composition and segregation are uncorrelated with urban growth across all cities, but in cities with large nonwhite communities segregation...
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作者：DENHAAN, WJ
摘要：Recent empirical papers study the convergence of per capita income, given an initial cross-sectional variation in per capita income. The question of why per capita income levels differ in the first place arises. This paper argues that the answer to this question has important implications for the estimation and interpretation of convergence models. If income is influenced by more than one factor, then we cannot expect a given cross-section of income levels to converge in the same manner at eve...
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作者：GALI, J
摘要：We analyze the implications of endogenous markups for the dynamics of capital accumulation, in an environment in which the degree of competition increases with economic development. In equilibrium markups are inversely related to the aggregate capital stock, which makes it possible for the marginal revenue product of capital to be nonmonotonic, even if the marginal product of capital is strictly diminishing. That feature raises the possibility of multiple steady states and, most interestingly,...
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作者：GLICK, R; ROGOFF, K
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：This paper develops an analytically tractable empirical model of investment and the current account, and applies it to data from the G-7 countries. The distinction between global and country-specific shocks turns out to be quite important for explaining current account behavior; overall the model performs surprisingly well. One apparent puzzle, however, is that the current account responds by much less than investment to country-specific shocks, despite the near unit root behavior of these sho...
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作者：BASU, S; FERNALD, JG
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：Using data on gross output for two-digit manufacturing industries, we find that an increase in the output of one manufacturing sector has little or no significant effect on the productivity of other sectors. Using value-added data, however, we confirm the results of previous studies which find that output spillovers instead appear large. We provide an explanation for these differences, showing why, with imperfect competition, the use of value-added data leads to a spurious finding of large app...
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作者：SALYER, KD
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作者：COLE, HL; KEHOE, PJ
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：A standard explanation for why sovereign governments repay their debts is that they must maintain a good reputation to easily borrow more. We show that the ability of reputation to support debt depends critically on the assumptions made about institutions. At one extreme, we assume that bankers can default on payments they owe to governments. At the other, we assume that bankers are committed to honoring contracts made with governments. We show that if bankers can default, then a government ge...
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作者：BALL, L
摘要：This paper presents a theory of the real effects of disinflation. As in New Keynesian models, price adjustment is staggered across firms. As in New Classical models, credibility is imperfect: the monetary authority may not complete a promised disinflation. The combination of imperfect credibility and staggering yields more plausible results than either of these assumptions alone. In particular, an announced disinflation reduces expected output if credibility is sufficiently low.
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作者：FLOOD, RP; ROSE, AK
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; International Monetary Fund
摘要：Fixed exchange rates are less volatile than floating rates. But the volatility of macroeconomic variables such as money and output does not change very much across exchange rate regimes. This suggest that exchange rate models based only on macroeconomic fundamentals are unlikely to be very successful. It also suggests that there is no clear tradeoff between reduced exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic stability.
