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作者：BALL, L
摘要：This paper presents a theory of the real effects of disinflation. As in New Keynesian models, price adjustment is staggered across firms. As in New Classical models, credibility is imperfect: the monetary authority may not complete a promised disinflation. The combination of imperfect credibility and staggering yields more plausible results than either of these assumptions alone. In particular, an announced disinflation reduces expected output if credibility is sufficiently low.
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作者：Zhu, XD
摘要：The present paper studies the implications of endogenous capital utilization and investor's effort on the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal policy. The main results are that levies of old capital are distortionary and should therefore not be used at confiscatory rates, that in a steady state capital and labor income should be taxed at the same rate and investment should be subsidized at the same rate as the tax rate, and that the optimal tax policy can be made time-consistent th...
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作者：FLOOD, RP; ROSE, AK
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; International Monetary Fund
摘要：Fixed exchange rates are less volatile than floating rates. But the volatility of macroeconomic variables such as money and output does not change very much across exchange rate regimes. This suggest that exchange rate models based only on macroeconomic fundamentals are unlikely to be very successful. It also suggests that there is no clear tradeoff between reduced exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic stability.
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作者：LANG, WW; NAKAMURA, LI
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：Recent explanations of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy have emphasized that riskier, lower net worth borrowers are more dependent on bank lending than larger, less risky borrowers. Evidence from the Federal Reserve's Survey on Terms of Bank Lending indicates that the proportion of relatively high quality new loans (%Safe) moves countercyclically and Granger causes GDP and inventory investment. In the aftermath of a tightening of monetary policy, the %Safe variable increases, and ...
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作者：ENGLE, RF; ISSLER, JV
作者单位：Getulio Vargas Foundation; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：We investigate in this paper the degree of short-run and long-run comovement in U.S. sectoral output data by estimating sectoral trends and cycles. A theoretical model based on Long and Plosser (1983) is used to derive a reduced form for sectoral outputs from first principles. Cointegration and common-cycle tests are performed; sectoral output data seem to share a relatively high number of common trends and a relatively low number of common cycles. A special trend-cycle decomposition of the da...
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作者：DURLAUF, SN; MACCINI, LJ
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：This paper has two purposes. One is to assess different models of inventory behavior in terms of their ability to approximate the realized data. We do this initially for the pure production smoothing model and then for a sequence of generalizations. Our analysis both performs specification tests as well as measures the deviations of the data from each null model through use of a noise ratio statistic. A second purpose is to explore whether observed cost shocks, in particular raw materials pric...
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作者：ROUBINI, N; SALAIMARTIN, X
摘要：This paper studies the relation between policies of financial repression, inflation rates, and long-term growth. We set up a model which shows that governments might want to repress the financial sector because this sector is an 'easy' source of resources for the public budget (the inflation tax). To the extent that the financial sector increases the efficiency of the allocation of savings to productive investment, the choice of the degree of financial development will have real effects on the...
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作者：FUHRER, JC; MOORE, GR; SCHUH, SD
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：We compare generalized method of moments (GMM) and maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the parameters of a linear-quadratic inventory model using nondurable manufacturing data and Monte Carlo simulations. Data-based GMM estimates for five normalizations vary widely, generally rejecting the model. The ML estimate generally supports the model. Monte Carlo experiments reveal that the GMM estimates are often biased (apparently due to poor instruments), statistically insignificant, economically i...
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作者：GORTON, GB; PENNACCHI, GG
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：Theories of financial intermediation predict that bank loans should not be marketable because of moral hazard problems; banks will not conduct credit risk analysis or monitor borrowers if they are not at risk for failing to perform these services. Throughout most of history, bank loans have not, in fact, been marketable. Yet, by the end of the 1980's the amount of commercial and industrial loan sales outstanding had grown to over $250 billion from trivial amounts at the beginning of the decade...
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作者：KING, I; WELLING, L
摘要：We develop a model to study the effects of changes in the size of technological innovations upon search and 'waiting-time' unemployment when search is costly and shocks are positively autocorrelated. We find that increases in the size of innovations increase steady state search, decrease steady-state waiting-time unemployment, and decrease total unemployment.
