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作者：Estrella, A; Mishkin, FS
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We examine the potential policy role of monetary aggregates by attempting to use them as effectively as possible in the analysis of empirical relationships. We focus on their role as information variables, since any more ambitious use, such as in a policy rule, would presuppose some information content in the aggregates. Our results show that in the United States since 1979, the monetary aggregates fall considerably short of those requirements, and results with German M3 are hardly more favora...
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作者：Uribe, M
摘要：This paper studies the initial effects of exchange-rate-based stabilization programs within a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy in which inflation acts as a tax on intermediate transactions and capital accumulation is subject to convex adjustment costs and gestation lags. The model replicates the typical pattern of slow inflation convergence, sustained real exchange rate appreciation, trade balance deterioration, and expansion in domestic spending followed by a deflatio...
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作者：Roberts, JM
摘要：New Keynesian sticky-price models predict that monetary policy can affect real variables. However, they also predict that inflation can be reduced without depressing output or employment. In fact, bringing down inflation is costly, presenting a challenge to the New Keynesian model. Two departures from the New Keynesian model predict costly disinflation. One assumes sticky inflation rather than sticky prices, while the other assumes less-than-perfectly rational expectations. Taking into account...
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作者：Bacchetta, P; Gerlach, S
作者单位：Study Center Gerzensee; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Bank for International Settlements (BIS); University of Lausanne
摘要：If some consumers are liquidity-constrained, aggregate consumption should be 'excessively sensitive' to credit conditions as well as to income. Moreover, the 'excess sensitivity' may vary over time. Using data for the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan and France, we find a substantial impact of credit aggregates on consumption in all countries considered. Moreover, the borrowing/lending wedge is a significant determinant of consumption in the United States, Canada and Japan. Usi...
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作者：Soderlind, P; Svensson, L
作者单位：Stockholm University; Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：This paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes. Traditionally, interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates, exchange rates and inflation. More recently, these methods have been refined to rely on implied-forward interest rates, so as to extract expected future time-paths. Very recently, methods have been designed to extract n...
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作者：Edwards, S; Vegh, CA
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：As the recent Mexican crisis vividly illustrates, Latin American countries often go through boom-bust cycles caused by both domestic policies and external shocks. Such cycles are typically magnified by weak banking systems which intermediate large capital inflows. This paper develops a simple optimizing model to analyze how the banking sector affects the propagation of shocks. In particular, we show how the world business cycle and shocks to the banking system affect output and employment thro...
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作者：DeBroeck, M
摘要：This paper analyzes the financial structure of government debt in the OECD countries from the perspective of time-consistency problems with a focus on debt held by financial institutions. Testable implications from a theoretical time-consistency model are derived and incorporated into the framework of a cost-minimizing model for public debt service. The approach is tested for a sample of 15 OECD countries over the period 1974-1989. The theoretical analysis and the empirical results show how, i...
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作者：Hentschel, L; Smith, CW
作者单位：University of Rochester
摘要：We review aspects of derivatives markets that affect central bank operations. We focus on how derivatives affect monetary policy and bank supervision, and argue that derivatives have no material adverse impact on the conduct of monetary policy. Our analysis suggests that both derivatives users and dealers face relatively small default risks from derivatives. Systemic risk, the risk of widespread default, has been largely exaggerated. Policy debates have neglected incentives of employees; the n...
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作者：Chapman, DA
摘要：Expected real yields on nominally risk-free bonds and expected consumption growth at horizons from one-quarter to two years are identified using time series models, and their basic propel-ties are examined. The principal results are: (1) real yields and consumption growth are (weakly) negatively correlated over the full sample period of 1953-1991; (2) excluding the 1979-1985 sub-period, real yields and consumption growth are (strongly) positively correlated; (3) the cyclical properties of real...
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作者：Gupta, A; LeCompte, RLB; Misra, L
作者单位：Wichita State University; University of Texas System; University of Texas at San Antonio
摘要：We compare the wealth effects of acquisitions of failed thrifts before and after the passage of FIRREA in August 1989. In contrast to FSLIC assisted deals in the pre-FIRREA period, we find no evidence of significant acquirer gains in RTC assisted transactions. In addition, there is no significant correlation between acquirer gains and either the number of bidders or the amount of assistance provided by the RTC. These results suggest the absence of any symmetric tax-payer overpayments in RTC as...
