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作者：Issler, JV; Vahid, F
作者单位：Getulio Vargas Foundation; Monash University
摘要：Although there has been substantial research using long-run co-movement (cointegration) restrictions in the empirical macroeconomics literature, little or no work has been done investigating the existence of short-run co-movement (common cycles) restrictions and discussing their implications. In this paper we first investigate the existence of common cycles in a aggregate data set comprising per-capita output, consumption, and investment. Later we discuss their usefulness in measuring the rela...
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作者：Rupert, P; Schindler, M; Wright, R
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：Virtually all simple search models of money assume agents with money cannot produce, and so everyone has either 0 or 1 units of money in steady state. We alternatively assume agents can always produce, and simply restrict money inventories to 0 or 1. This seems better for many issues; for example, in the standard model it is difficult to interpret increases in the money supply, because increasing the fraction of agents holding money decreases the economy's productive capacity. Our model avoids...
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作者：Wheelock, DC; Wilson, PW
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：This paper presents new estimates of scale and product mix economies for U.S. commercial banks. We compare estimates derived from fitting a translog function to bank costs with estimates derived from nonparametric methods. We refine measures of scale and product mix economies introduced by Berger et al. (J. Monet. Econ. 20 (1987) 501) to accommodate nonparametric estimation, and estimate confidence intervals to assess the statistical significance of returns to scale. Broadly, we find evidence ...
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作者：Carlson, JA; Valev, NT
作者单位：University System of Georgia; Georgia State University; Purdue University System; Purdue University
摘要：Low credibility, reflected in persistent expectations of high inflation, is the usual suspect in costly disinflation efforts. A currency board is a monetary regime that attempts to establish credibility by reducing uncertainty regarding the inflation preferences of the policymaker and the environment in which the policymaker operates. This paper uses unique survey data from Bulgaria and finds that expected inflation is indeed lowered by the prospect of a currency board but to a different degre...
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作者：Kuttner, KN
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：This paper estimates the impact of monetary policy actions on bill, note, and bond yields, using data from the futures market for Federal funds to separate changes in the target funds rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Interest rates' response to anticipated target rate changes is small, while their response to unanticipated changes is large and highly significant. These responses are generally consistent with the expectations hypothesis of the term structure. Surprise target ...
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作者：Khan, A; Ravikumar, B
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：We examine the impact of incomplete risk-sharing on growth and welfare. The source of market incompleteness in our economy is private information: a household's idiosyncratic productivity shock is not observable by others. Risk-sharing between households occurs through long-term contracts with intermediaries. We find that incomplete risk-sharing tends to reduce the rate of growth relative to the complete risk-sharing benchmark. Numerical examples indicate that the welfare cost and the growth e...
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作者：Davis, SJ; Haltiwanger, J
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：We study the effects of oil price shocks on the creation and destruction of U.S. manufacturing jobs from 1972 to 1988. Oil shocks account for 20-25 percent of the variability in employment growth, twice as much as monetary shocks. The two-year employment response to an oil price increase rises (in magnitude) with capital intensity, energy intensity and product durability. Job destruction shows much greater short-run sensitivity to oil and monetary shocks than job creation except at young, smal...
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作者：Paasche, B
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：A version of the Kiyotaki and Moore (J. Political Econom. 105 (1997) 211) model of credit cycles is used to examine the extent to which a crisis in a country can spread to another seemingly unrelated country. The model features two small open economics that face credit constraints and produce a differentiated commodity which they export to a large country. A productivity shock to one of the small open economies triggers an adverse terms of trade shock to the other which is then amplified by cr...
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作者：Chatterjee, S; Carlino, GA
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：In this paper we document that the disparity in employment densities across US metropolitan areas has lessened substantially over the postwar period. To account for this deconcentration of metropolitan employment, we develop a system-of-cities model in which an increase in aggregate metropolitan employment clauses congestion costs to increase faster for the more dense metro areas. A calibrated version of the model reveals that the (roughly) two-and-a-half-fold increase in postwar aggregate met...
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作者：Engen, EM; Gruber, J
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：Models of precautionary saving imply that households will hold more assets when faced with greater income uncertainty. However, previous empirical studies of income uncertainty have produced somewhat mixed support for the precautionary saving hypothesis. In this paper, we note that differences in the state-contingent income stream available to workers through the unemployment insurance (UI) program provides an excellent source of variation for testing the presence of a precautionary savings mo...
