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作者：Hansen, LP; Sargent, TJ
作者单位：New York University; University of Chicago
摘要：This paper shows how to formulate and compute robust Ramsey (aka Stackelberg) plans for linear models with forward-looking private agents. The leader and the followers share a common approximating model and both have preferences for robust decision rules because both doubt the model. Since their preferences differ, the leader's and followers' decision rules are fragile to different misspecifications of the approximating model. We define a Stackelberg equilibrium with robust decision makers in ...
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作者：Aoki, K
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI)
摘要：We describe a behavior of a central bank when its measures of current inflation and output are subject to measurement errors, in a framework of optimizing models with nominal price stickiness. In our model, a central bank sets the interest rate equal to its current estimate of the so-called Wicksellian natural rate of interest. This is shown to imply that the interest rate responds to the central bank's estimates of both current inflation and output gap, as advocated by Taylor (1993). It is al...
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作者：Orphanides, A
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：This study investigates the implications of noisy information regarding the measurement of economic activity for the evaluation of monetary policy. Using a simple model of the U.S. economy, I show that failing to account for the actual level of information noise in the historical data provides a seriously distorted picture of feasible macroeconomic outcomes and produces inefficient policy rules. Naive adoption of policies identified as efficient when this difficulty is ignored results in macro...
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作者：Bernanke, BS; Boivin, J
作者单位：Princeton University; Columbia University
摘要：Most empirical analyses of monetary policy have been confined to frameworks in which the Federal Reserve is implicitly assumed to exploit only a limited amount of information, despite the fact that the Fed actively monitors literally thousands of economic time series. This article explores the feasibility of incorporating richer information sets into the analysis, both positive and normative, of Fed policymaking. We employ a factor-model approach, developed by Stock, J.H., Watson, M.W., Diffus...
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作者：Svensson, LEO; Woodford, M
作者单位：Princeton University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The optimal weights on indicators in models with partial information about the state of the economy and forward-looking variables are derived and interpreted, both for equilibria under discretion and under commitment. An example of optimal monetary policy with a partially observable potential output and a forward-looking indicator is examined. The optimal response to the optimal estimate of potential output displays certainty equivalence, whereas the optimal response to the imperfect observati...
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作者：Sims, CA
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：A constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite Shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems. The resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical, while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevie...
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作者：Orphanides, A
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：In recent years, activist monetary policy rules responding to inflation and the level of economic activity have been advanced as a means of achieving effective output stabilization without inflation. Advocates of such policies suggest that their flexibility may yield substantial stabilization benefits while avoiding the excesses of overzealous discretionary fine-tuning such as is thought to characterize the experience of the 1960s and 1970s. In this study I present evidence suggesting that the...
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作者：Dotsey, M; Hornstein, A
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：This paper examines whether monetary indicators are useful in implementing optimal discretionary monetary policy when the policymaker has incomplete information about the environment. We find that money does not contain useful information for the policymaker, if we calibrate the model to the U.S. economy. If money demand were to be appreciably less variable, observations on money could be useful in response to productivity shocks but would be harmful in response to money-demand shocks. We prov...
