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作者：Aghion, P; Bacchetta, P; Banerjee, A
作者单位：Study Center Gerzensee; Harvard University; University of Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：This paper introduces a framework for analyzing the role of financial factors as a source of instability in small open economies. Our basic model is a dynamic open economy model with a tradeable good produced with capital and a country-specific factor. We also assume that firms face credit constraints, with the constraint being tighter at a lower level of financial development. A basic implication of this model is that economies at an intermediate level of financial development are more unstab...
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作者：Beaudry, P; Portier, F
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; University of British Columbia; National Bureau of Economic Research; Institut Universitaire de France; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper explores a theory of business cycles in which recessions and booms arise due to difficulties encountered by agents in properly forecasting the economy's future needs in terms of capital. The idea has a long history in the macroeconomic literature, as reflected by the work of Pigou (Industrial Fluctuation, MacMillan, London, 1926). The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we illustrate the type of general equilibrium structure that can give rise to such phenomena. Second, we...
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作者：Giordani, P
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：This paper proposes an explanation for the frequent appearance of a price puzzle in VARs designed for monetary policy analysis. It assumes that the data are generated by a model in which output and output gap are not equivalent, while an econometrician follows the common practice of including only output in the VAR. The omission of the output gap is shown to spuriously produce a price puzzle (and several other incorrect conclusions) in a class of commonly used models. This can happen even if t...
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作者：Kortum, S
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
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作者：Rigobon, R; Sack, B
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：Estimating the response of asset prices to changes in monetary policy is complicated by the endogeneity of policy decisions and the fact that both interest rates and asset prices react to numerous other variables. This paper develops a new estimator that is based on the heterpskedaticity that exists in high-frequency data. We show (hat the response of asset prices to changes in monetary policy can be identified based on the increase in the variance of Policy shocks that occurs on days of FOMC ...
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作者：Fuhrer, JC; Rudebusch, GD
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：New Keynesian macroeconomic models have generally emphasized that expectations of future output are a key factor in determining current output. The theoretical motivation for such forward-looking behavior relies on a straightforward generalization of the well-known Euler equation for consumption. In this paper, we use maximum likelihood and generalized method of moments (GMM) methods to explore the empirical importance of output expectations. We find little evidence that rational expectations ...
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作者：Eckstein, Z; Tsiddon, D
作者单位：Tel Aviv University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper analyzes the effect of terror on the economy. Terror endangers life such that the value of the future relative to the present is reduced. Hence, due to a rise in terror activity, investment goes down, and in the long run income and consumption go down as well. Governments can offset terror by putting tax revenues into the production of security. Facing a tide in terror, a government that acts optimally increases the proportion of output spent on defense, but does not fully offset th...
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作者：Michelacci, C
摘要：The microevidence indicates that small firms grow faster than big firms. I argue that this relationship between the expected growth rate of a firm and its size may provide a microfoundation for the well-known high degree of persistence of shocks to aggregate output. The logic goes as follows. Almost any shock tends to temporarily alter firms' incentive to invest in growth thereby leading to a reallocation of firms across size categories. If small firms grow faster than big ones, the impact eff...
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作者：Benigno, G
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：The objective of this paper is to analyze the effects of alternative monetary rules on real exchange rate persistence. Using a two-country stochastic dynamic general equilibrium with nominal price stickiness and local currency pricing, we will show how the persistence of purchasing power parity deviations can be related to a monetary theory of these deviations. When monetary policy lean against the wind, there is no relationship of proportionality between the time during which prices remain st...
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作者：Krueger, D; Kumar, KB
作者单位：University of Southern California; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：European economic growth has been weak, compared to the US, since the 1980s. In previous work (Krueger and Kumar, 2003, NBER Working Paper No. 9410), we argued that the European focus on specialized, vocational education might have been effective during the 1960s and 1970s, but resulted in a growth gap relative to the US during the subsequent information age, when new technologies emerged more rapidly. In this paper, we extend our framework to assess the quantitative importance of education po...
