An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Beaudry, P; Portier, F
• 署名单位: Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; University of British Columbia; National Bureau of Economic Research; Institut Universitaire de France; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2003.10.003
• 发表日期: 2004
• 页码: 1183-1216
• 关键词: recessions; equilibrium business cycles; technological progress; expectations

摘要

This paper explores a theory of business cycles in which recessions and booms arise due to difficulties encountered by agents in properly forecasting the economy's future needs in terms of capital. The idea has a long history in the macroeconomic literature, as reflected by the work of Pigou (Industrial Fluctuation, MacMillan, London, 1926). The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we illustrate the type of general equilibrium structure that can give rise to such phenomena. Second, we examine the extent to which such a model can explain the observed pattern of U.S. recessions (frequency, depth) without relying on technological regress. We argue that such a model offer a framework for understanding elements of both the recent U.S. recession and of the Asia downturns of the late 1990s. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.