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作者：Cukierman, A
作者单位：Tel Aviv University
摘要：This paper is a pioneering attempt to take a systematic look at the effects of terror in Israel. It presents a theoretical analysis of the macroeconomic consequences of terror followed by empirical evidence for Israel. The theory part utilizes a steady state version of Blanchard (1985) finite lives model in which each individual faces a constant probability of death at every moment. The empirical part is, for the most part, based on level and first difference VAR's between GNP, non durable con...
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作者：Aizenman, J
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper explains why relative PPP should hold more tightly in emerging markets, and why pricing to market would be observed more frequently in the OECD countries. It studies the endogenous determination of pricing to market, in a real option model with time-dependent transportation costs, where the Future terms of trade are random. Allowing time-dependent transportation costs adds a dimension of investment to the pre-buying of imports, implying that financial considerations determine the fr...
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作者：Reynard, S
作者单位：Swiss National Bank (SNB)
摘要：This paper uses multi-period cross-sectional data on financial assets holdings to shed light on the postwar stability of money demand in the United States. I first present a new measure of the evolution of financial market participation, by relating participation to the extensive margins of money demand, and quantify the influence of wealth on participation decisions. I then relate the increase in participation to the period of missing money and to the subsequent higher interest rate elasticit...
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作者：Amato, JD; Laubach, T
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：We study the implications for optimal monetary policy of introducing habit formation in consumption into a general equilibrium model with sticky prices. Habit formation affects the model's endogenous dynamics through its effects on both aggregate demand and households' supply of output. We show that the objective of monetary policy consistent with welfare maximization includes output stabilization, as well as inflation and output gap stabilization. We find that the variance of output increases...
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作者：Carlstrom, CT; Fuerst, TS
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; University System of Ohio; Bowling Green State University
摘要：It is well known that sunspot equilibria may arise under an interest rate operating procedure in which the central bank varies the nominal rate with movements in future inflation (a forward-looking Taylor rule). This paper demonstrates that these sunspot equilibria may be learnable in the sense of E-stability. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.
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作者：Pappa, E
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：A two-country model with monopolistic competition and price stickiness is employed to investigate the implications for macroeconomic stability and the welfare properties of three international policy arrangements: (a) cooperative, (b) non-cooperative and (c) monetary union. I characterize the conditions under which there is scope for policy cooperation and quantify the costs of non-cooperation and monetary union. The non-cooperative equilibrium may be suboptimal because of terms of trade spill...
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作者：Ambler, S; Cardia, E; Zimmermann, C
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Universite de Montreal; Universite de Montreal; University of Connecticut
摘要：Modern business cycle theory involves developing models that explain stylized facts. For this strategy to be successful, these facts should be well established. In this paper, we focus on the stylized facts of international business cycles. We use the generalized method of moments and quarterly data from twenty industrialized countries to estimate and test hypotheses concerning pairwise cross-country correlations of macroeconomic aggregates. A remarkable common feature emerges: these correlati...
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作者：Storesletten, K; Telmer, CI; Yaron, A
作者单位：University of Oslo; Carnegie Mellon University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：A striking feature of U.S. data on income and consumption is that inequality increases with age. This paper asks if individual-specific earnings risk can provide a coherent explanation. We find that it can. We construct an overlapping generations general equilibrium model in which households face uninsurable earnings shocks over the course of their lifetimes. Earnings inequality is exogenous and is calibrated to match data from the U.S. Panel Study on Income Dynamics. Consumption inequality is...
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作者：Blomberg, SB; Hess, GD; Orphanides, A
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Claremont McKenna College; Claremont Graduate University; Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：We perform an empirical investigation of the macroeconomic consequences of international terrorism and interactions with alternative forms of collective violence. Our analysis is based on a rich unbalanced panel data set with annual observations on 177 countries from 1968 to 2000, which brings together information from the Penn World Table data set, the ITERATE data set for terrorist events, and data sets of external and internal conflict. We explore these data with cross-sectional and panel g...
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作者：Owyang, MT; Ramey, G
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：This paper applies regime-switching methods to the problem of measuring monetary policy. Policy preferences and structural factors are specified parametrically as independent Markov processes. Interaction between the structural and preference parameters in the policy rule serves to identify the two processes. The estimates uncover policy episodes that are initiated by switches to dove regimes, shown to Granger-cause both NBER recessions and the Romer dates. These episodes imply real effects of...
