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作者：Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn; Veldkamp, Laura
作者单位：New York University; New York University
摘要：When a boom ends, the downturn is generally sharp and short. When growth resumes. the boom is more gradual. Our explanation rests on learning about productivity. When agents believe productivity is high, they work, invest, and produce more. More productivity generates higher precision information. When the boom ends, precise estimates of the slowdown prompt decisive reactions: investment and labor fall sharply. When growth resumes, low production yields noisy estimates of recovery. Noise imped...
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作者：Wang, N
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：Friedman's contribution to the consumption literature goes well beyond the seminal permanent-income hypothesis. He conjectured that the marginal propensity to consume out of financial wealth shall be larger than out of human wealth, the present discounted value of future labor income. I present an explicitly solved model to deliver this widely noted consumption property by specifying that the conditional variance of changes in income increases with its level. A larger realization of income not...
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作者：Koreshkova, Tatyana A.
作者单位：Concordia University - Canada; University of Toronto; University System of Ohio; Oberlin College
摘要：Inflation rates Lire more dispersed and are persistently higher in developing countries. This paper quantifies the importance of the public-finance motive for inflation in the presence of a tax-evading sector, the underground economy. The approach is motivated by the observation that the underground economy is especially large in poor countries. The analysis builds on a general equilibrium monetary model with two production sectors. where income in one of the sectors cannot be taxed. A benevol...
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作者：Fatum, R
作者单位：University of Alberta
摘要：This paper employs a multi-country delegation monetary policy model and argues that a decision-making mechanism based on the median voter theorem where intensity of preferences cannot play a role does not capture important aspects of policy setting in the European Monetary Union. Replacing the median voter mechanism with a less restrictive weighted mean mechanism, it is shown that strategic delegation can lead to a surprising degree of central bank inflation aversion. This finding supports the...
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作者：Brandt, Michael W.; Cochrane, John H.; Santa-Clara, Pedro
作者单位：University of Chicago; Duke University; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Exchange rates depreciate by the difference between domestic and foreign marginal utility growth or discount factors. Exchange rates vary a lot. as Much as 15% per year. However. equity premia imply that marginal utility growth varies much more, by at least 50% per year. Therefore. marginal utility growth must be highly correlated across countries: international risk sharing is better than you think. Conversely, if risks really are not shared internationally. exchange rates should vary more th...
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作者：Smith, AA; Wang, C
作者单位：Yale University; Iowa State University
摘要：We construct a general equilibrium model with private information in which borrowers and lenders enter into long-term dynamic credit relationships. Each new generation of ex ante identical individuals is divided in equilibrium into workers and entrepreneurs. Workers save through financial intermediaries in the form of interest-bearing deposits and Supply labor to entrepreneurs in a competitive labor market. Entrepreneurs borrow from financial intermediaries to finance projects which produce pr...
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作者：Athreya, Kartik B.; Simpson, Nicole B.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Colgate University
摘要：In U.S. data, income interruptions, the receipt of public insurance, and the incidence of personal bankruptcy are all closely related. The central contribution of this paper is to evaluate bankruptcy protection and public insurance in a unified setting where each program alters incentives in the other. Our analysis delivers two striking conclusions. First. we find that U.S. personal bankruptcy law is an important barrier that prevents the public insurance system from improving welfare. Second,...
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作者：Aguiar, Mark; Broner, Fernando A.
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston
摘要：Emerging market crises are characterized by large swings in both macroeconomic fundamentals and asset prices. The economic significance of observed movements in macroeconomic variables is obscured by the brief and extreme nature of crises. In this paper we propose to study the macroeconomic consequences of crises by studying the behavior of effective fundamentals, constructed by studying the relative movements of stock prices during crises. We find that these effective fundamentals provide a d...
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作者：Kurozumi, Takushi
作者单位：Bank of Japan
摘要：Recent studies show that the Taylor rule possesses desirable properties in terms of generating determinacy and E-stability of rational expectations equilibria under sticky prices. This paper examines whether this policy rule retains these properties within a discrete-time money-in-utility-function model, employing three timings of money balances Of the utility function that the existing literature contains: end-of-period timing and two types of cash-in-advance timing. This paper shows: (i) eve...
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作者：Schaller, Huntley
作者单位：Carleton University
摘要：The user cost elasticity is a parameter of central importance in economics. If the supply curve for capital is upward sloping (as is more likely in a large economy like the U.S.) and shocks to demand are important (as they are likely to be over the business cycle), estimates of the user cost elasticity that rely on high-frequency movements in the variables will tend to be biased. Applying cointegration techniques to a small, open economy yields an estimate of the long-run user cost elasticity ...
