Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: Evidence from the Livingston Survey

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Leduc, Sylvain; Sill, Keith; Stark, Tom
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.08.019
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 433-459
• 关键词: Monetary policy; inflation; expectations; time-series model

摘要

Using survey data on expectations, we examine whether the response of monetary policy to sudden movements in expected inflation contributed to the persistent high inflation of the 1970s. The evidence suggests that, prior to 1979, the Fed accommodated temporary shocks to expected inflation, which then led to persistent increases in actual inflation. We do not find this behavior in the post 1979 data. Among commonly cited factors, oil and fiscal shocks do not appear to have triggered an increase in expected inflation that eventually resulted in higher actual inflation. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.