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作者：Albanesi, Stefania
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：Cross-country evidence on inflation and income inequality suggests that they are positively related. This article explores the hypothesis that this correlation is the outcome of a distributional conflict underlying the determination of government policies. A political economy model is presented in which equilibrium inflation is positively related to the degree of inequality in income due to the relative vulnerability to inflation of low income households. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights rese...
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作者：Huang, Kevin X. D.; Liu, Zheng
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Vanderbilt University; Emory University
摘要：International trade in intermediate inputs and, increasingly, in goods produced at multiple stages of processing has been widely studied in the real trade literature. We assess the role of this feature of modern world trade in accounting for some stylized facts about international business cycles. Our model with staggered prices and trade in intermediates across four stages of processing does well in explaining the observed international correlations in aggregate quantities, and it performs mu...
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作者：Nosal, Ed; Wallace, Neil
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：A simple matching-model of money with the potential for counterfeiting is constructed. In contrast to the existing literature, lotteries are included. These provide scope for the operation of the intuitive criterion of Cho and Kreps. The application of that refinement is shown to imply that there is no equilibrium with counterfeiting. If the cost of producing counterfeits is low enough, then there is no monetary equilibrium. Otherwise, there is a monetary equilibrium without counterfeiting. In...
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作者：Kahn, Charles M.; Roberds, William
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital
摘要：Payment, fundamental to exchange in a decentralized economy, often takes the form of transfers of inside money, i.e., specialized forms of debt. Associated with each type of inside money is a set of rules that governs both the legitimacy of such transfers as means of extinguishing other debts, and the allocation of the ensuing risks. In this paper we develop a model of debt as inside money. In a simple mechanism design framework we show that transferable debt that can be used to settle other d...
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作者：Ang, Andrew; Bekaert, Geert; Wei, Min
作者单位：Columbia University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Surveys do! We examine the forecasting power of four alternative methods of forecasting U.S. inflation out-of-sample: time-series ARIMA models; regressions using real activity measures motivated from the Phillips curve; term structure models that include linear, non-linear, and arbitrage-free specifications; and survey-based measures. We also investigate several methods of combining forecasts. Our results show that surveys outperform the other forecasting methods and that the term structure. s...
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作者：Eusepi, Stefano
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：The recent literature on monetary policy design has emphasized the importance of equilibrium determinacy and learnability in the choice of policy rules. This paper contains an analysis of the learnability of the equilibrium in a class of simple, micro-founded models in which the policy authority uses a Taylor-type monetary-policy rule. Unlike previous analyses, the model economy is not linearized about a steady state-instead, a global perspective is adopted. Globally, the nonlinear model econo...
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作者：Veracierto, Marcelo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：While several countries have recognized the need of introducing flexibility to their labor markets, there are different ways of doing so. Using a small open economy with tenure-dependent separation taxes, this paper compares introducing a full reform with two partial alternatives: (1) the introduction of temporary contracts, and (2) the elimination of separation costs from all new hires while freezing them on the workers that were hired prior to the reform. The first alternative can achieve a ...
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作者：Faust, Jon; Rogers, John H.; Wang, Shing-Yi B.; Wright, Jonathan H.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Yale University; Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：The joint movements of exchange rates and U.S. and foreign term structures over short-time windows around macro announcements are studied using a 14-year span of high-frequency data. In order to evaluate whether the joint effects can be reconciled with conventional theory, the implications of these joint movements for changes in expected future exchange rates and changes in foreign exchange risk premia are deduced. For several real macro announcements, a stronger than expected release apprecia...
