Learnability and monetary policy: A global perspective

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Eusepi, Stefano
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.02.003
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 1115-1131
• 关键词: learnability; inflation targeting; simple feedback rules; endogenous fluctuations

摘要

The recent literature on monetary policy design has emphasized the importance of equilibrium determinacy and learnability in the choice of policy rules. This paper contains an analysis of the learnability of the equilibrium in a class of simple, micro-founded models in which the policy authority uses a Taylor-type monetary-policy rule. Unlike previous analyses, the model economy is not linearized about a steady state-instead, a global perspective is adopted. Globally, the nonlinear model economy can possess rational expectations equilibria, other than the steady state consistent with the inflation target of the monetary authorities. These include a second, low inflation 'liquidity trap' steady state, periodic equilibria, and sunspot equilibria. The main results in the paper characterize the conditions under which these alternative equilibria maybe stable under adaptive learning, even when the policy rule obeys the Taylor principle. The stability of multiple equilibria is associated with policy rules which are forecast-based. An important finding is that backward-looking Taylor-type policy rules can guarantee that the unique learnable equilibrium is the steady state associated with the inflation target of the monetary authority. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.