-
作者：Canzoneri, Matthew B.; Cumby, Robert E.; Diba, Behzad T.
作者单位：Georgetown University
摘要：Standard macroeconomic models equate the money market rate targeted by the central bank with the interest rate implied by a consumption Euler equation. We use U.S. data to calculate the interest rates implied by Euler equations derived from a number of specifications of household preferences. Correlations between these Euler equation rates and the Federal Funds rate are generally negative. Regression results and impulse response functions imply that the spreads between the Euler equation rates...
-
作者：Chatterjee, Satyajit; Corbae, Dean
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：The potential benefit of policies that eliminate a small likelihood of economic crises is calculated. An economic crisis is defined as an increase in unemployment of the magnitude observed during the Great Depression. For the U.S., the maximum likelihood estimate of entering a depression is found to be about once every 83 years. The welfare gain from setting this small probability to zero can range between 1% and 7% of annual consumption in perpetuity. For most estimates, more than half of the...
-
作者：Kahn, James A.; Rich, Robert W.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：The acceleration of productivity after 1995 prompted a debate over whether the economy's underlying growth rate would remain high. In this paper, we draw on growth theory to identify variables other than productivity-namely consumption and labor compensation-to help estimate trend productivity growth. We treat that trend as a common factor with two regimes, high- and low-growth. Our analysis picks up striking evidence of a return in 1997 to the high-growth regime, nearly 25 years after a switc...
-
作者：Eusepi, Stefano
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：The recent literature on monetary policy design has emphasized the importance of equilibrium determinacy and learnability in the choice of policy rules. This paper contains an analysis of the learnability of the equilibrium in a class of simple, micro-founded models in which the policy authority uses a Taylor-type monetary-policy rule. Unlike previous analyses, the model economy is not linearized about a steady state-instead, a global perspective is adopted. Globally, the nonlinear model econo...
-
作者：Veracierto, Marcelo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：While several countries have recognized the need of introducing flexibility to their labor markets, there are different ways of doing so. Using a small open economy with tenure-dependent separation taxes, this paper compares introducing a full reform with two partial alternatives: (1) the introduction of temporary contracts, and (2) the elimination of separation costs from all new hires while freezing them on the workers that were hired prior to the reform. The first alternative can achieve a ...
-
作者：Rogers, John H.
摘要：The pattern of price dispersion across European and US cities from 1990 to 2004 is documented. There is a striking decline in dispersion for traded goods prices in Europe, most of which took place prior to the launch of the euro. Dispersion in the euro area is now quite close to that of the USA. This evidence provides useful facts for future work assessing the importance of various developments in Europe: harmonization of tax rates, convergence of incomes and labor costs, liberalization of tra...
-
作者：Devereux, Michael B.; Smith, Gregor W.
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Queens University - Canada
摘要：We study the classic,:transfer problem using the largest historical example, the Franco-Prussian War indemnity of 1871-1.873 which saw France transfer to Germany 25% of a year's GDP. A dynamic, two-country model allows for debt finance, supply-side effects, and controls for wartime spending. The model can, fit the historical paths of French net exports and the terms of trade. But explaining French output and consumption requires additional shocks. These results illustrate the usefulness of, th...
-
作者：Caballero, Ricardo J.; Engel, Eduardo M. R. A.
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Yale University
摘要：What is the relation between infrequent price adjustment and the dynamic response of the aggregate price level to monetary shocks? The answer to this question ranges from a one-to-one link [Calvo, G., 1983. Prices in a utility maximizing framework. Journal of Monetary Economics 12, 383-398] to no connection whatsoever [Caplin, A., Spulber, D., 1987. Menu costs and the neutrality of money. Quarterly Journal of Economics 102, 703-726]. The purpose of this paper is to provide a unified framework ...
-
作者：King, Robert G.
-
作者：Pavoni, Nicola
作者单位：University of London; University College London
摘要：The design of an optimal unemployment compensation scheme is analyzed, using a dynamic principal-agent relationship between a risk-neutral planner (the principal) and risk-averse workers (the agents), where the planner's inability to observe workers' job-search efforts creates a moral hazard problem. To design an implementable scheme, we require that each agent is guaranteed a minimum level of expected discounted utility, regardless of his past history. In contrast with previous studies, we fi...
