-
作者：Canova, Fabio; Paustian, Matthias
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Bowling Green State University
摘要：A method to evaluate cyclical models not requiring knowledge of the DGP and the exact specification of the aggregate decision rules is proposed. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use some to identify structural shocks in the data and others to evaluate the class or contrast sub-models. The approach has good properties, even in small samples, and when the class of models is misspecified. The method is used to sort out the relevance of a certain friction (the presence of rule-o...
-
作者：Trabandt, Mathias; Uhlig, Harald
作者单位：University of Chicago; European Central Bank; Deutsche Bundesbank; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Laffer curves for the US, the EU-14 and individual European countries are compared, using a neoclassical growth model featuring constant Frisch elasticity (CFE) preferences. New tax rate data is provided. The US can maximally increase tax revenues by 30% with labor taxes and 6% with capital taxes. We obtain 8% and 1% for the EU-14. There, 54% of a labor tax cut and 79% of a capital tax cut are self-financing. The consumption tax Laffer curve does not peak. Endogenous growth and human capital a...
-
作者：Berkelmans, Leon
作者单位：Reserve Bank of Australia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：In multiple shock models, when agents have imperfect information they attempt to infer a shock's type, in addition to its size. In this environment, monetary policy plays an important signaling role. This paper highlights this signaling role by showing that conclusions from imperfect information monetary models are sensitive to the number of shocks included. With multiple shocks, contractionary monetary policy can initially increase inflation and delay the eventual disinflation. Moreover, mult...
-
作者：Mathy, Gabriel P.; Meissner, Christopher M.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Recent analysis focuses on the gold standard as a channel for the transmission of the Great Depression. Trade linkages, which loom large in the recent literature, play a smaller role. Both the gold standard and trade were associated with higher co-movement at the bilateral level during the entire interwar period. We document that fixed exchange rates and trade made a comeback after 1932, but co-movement declined. The fall after 1932 appears to be driven by the rise of smaller blocs based on mo...
-
作者：Imbs, Jean; Jondeau, Eric; Pelgrin, Florian
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; University of Lausanne
摘要：Sector-level Phillips curves are estimated in French data. There is considerable heterogeneity across sectors, with vastly different estimates of the backward looking component of inflation and the duration of nominal rigidities. A multi-sector model of inflation dynamics is calibrated on the basis of these sectoral estimates. Aggregate inflation, simulated on the basis of heterogeneous sectors, displays comparable dynamics to actual data. A comparison is drawn between the policy trade-offs im...
-
作者：Peretto, Pietro F.; Valente, Simone
作者单位：Duke University; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich
摘要：The relative performance of open economies is analyzed in an endogenous growth model with asymmetric trade. A resource-rich country trades resource-based intermediates for final goods produced by a resource-poor economy. The effects of an increase in the resource endowment depend on the elasticity of substitution between resources and labor in intermediates' production. Under substitution (complementarity), the resource boom generates higher (lower) income, lower (higher) employment in the pri...
-
作者：Sustek, Roman
作者单位：University of Iowa
摘要：In most manufacturing industries plant-level output is adjusted along three margins of capacity utilization: shiftwork, weekend work, and closing temporarily down. Due to the discrete and lumpy nature of these margins, only a fraction of plants adjust output in response to shocks. In a business cycle model calibrated to establishment-level observations, these nonconvexities make aggregate output less volatile than when plants can adjust smoothly. Further, the mass of adjusting plants is larger...
