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作者：Ravn, Morten O.; Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie; Uribe, Martin
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; University College London
摘要：Using panel structural VAR analysis and quarterly data from four industrialized countries, we document that an increase in government purchases raises output and private consumption, deteriorates the trade balance, and depreciates the real exchange rate. This pattern of comovement poses a puzzle for both neoclassical and Keynesian models. An explanation based on the deep-habit mechanism is proposed. An estimated two-country model with deep-habits is shown to replicate well the observed respons...
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作者：D'Erasmo, Pablo N.; Boedo, Hernan J. Moscoso
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; University of Virginia
摘要：The impact of capital market imperfections and costs of creating and operating formal sector firms on total factor productivity is studied. We propose a firm dynamics model with endogenous formal and informal sectors where firms face a technology adoption opportunity. The model predicts that countries with a low degree of debt enforcement and high costs of formality are characterized by low allocative efficiency and large output shares produced by low productivity, informal sector firms. For f...
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作者：Giglio, Stefano; Severo, Tiago
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Chicago
摘要：Purely technological factors can be a fundamental force behind the emergence of asset price bubbles in developed economies. We analyze an economy in which the production technology utilizes both physical and intangible capital, where the latter cannot be used as collateral for borrowing. Technological change, in the form of increased importance of intangible capital in production, sharpens the borrowing constraints of entrepreneurs, leading to a scarcity of high-yield assets relative to low-yi...
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作者：Alexopoulos, Michelle; Tombe, Trevor
作者单位：University of Toronto; Wilfrid Laurier University
摘要：To evaluate the effect of managerial innovations on the economy, a series of new indicators capturing these advances is constructed. Three findings emerge from the analysis. First, following a positive managerial shock, output and productivity significantly increase and hours modestly rise in the short run. Second, management innovations are generally as important as non-managerial ones in explaining movements in these variables at business cycle frequencies. Finally, product and process innov...
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作者：Bachmann, Ruediger; Sims, Eric R.
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research; RWTH Aachen University
摘要：Is impacting confidence an important channel by which government spending shocks affect economic activity? In a standard structural VAR, an empirical measure of confidence does not significantly react to spending shocks and output multipliers are around one. In a non-linear VAR, confidence rises following an increase in spending during periods of economic slack and multipliers are much larger. The systematic response of confidence is irrelevant for the output multiplier during normal times, bu...
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作者：Pieschacon, Anamaria
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：The value of fiscal discipline is assessed by analyzing the role of fiscal policy as a transmission mechanism of oil price shocks in oil-exporting small open economies. Fiscal policy is an important propagation channel. Taking policy as given by the data, the model can successfully explain the responses of key macroeconomic variables, but it is unable to explain these responses under counterfactual fiscal frameworks. Interestingly, fiscal policy also seems capable of regulating the size of pas...
