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作者：Johnson, Simon; Larson, William; Papageorgiou, Chris; Subramanian, Arvind
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Peterson Institute for International Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research; George Washington University; Johns Hopkins University; International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper sheds light on two problems in the Penn World Table (PWT) GDP estimates. First, we. show that these estimates vary substantially across different versions of the PWT despite being derived from very similar underlying data and using almost identical methodologies: that the methodology deployed to estimate growth rates leads to systematic variability, which is greater: at higher data frequencies, for smaller countries, and the farther the estimate from the benchmark year. Moreover, th...
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作者：Cordoba, Juan Carlos; Ripoll, Marla
作者单位：Iowa State University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh
摘要：This paper provides a theory that explains the cross-country distribution of average years of schooling, as well as the so called human capital premium puzzle. In our theory, credit frictions as well as differences in access to public education, fertility and mortality turn out to be the key reasons why schooling differs across countries. Differences in growth rates and in wages are second order. (c) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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作者：Cavallo, Alberto
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Prices collected from online retailers can be used to construct daily price indexes that complement official statistics. This paper studies their ability to match official inflation estimates in five Latin American countries, with a focus on Argentina, where official statistics have been heavily criticized in recent years. The data were collected between October 2007 and March 2011 from the largest supermarket in each country. In Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Venezuela, online price indexes app...
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作者：Armenter, Roc; Mertens, Thomas M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; New York University
摘要：Insurance schemes rely on legal consequences to deter fraud and tax evasion. This observation guides us to introduce random state verification in a dynamic economy with private information. With some probability, an agent's skill becomes known to the planner who prescribes punishments to misreporting agents. Deferring consumption can ease the provision of incentives creating a motive for subsidizing savings. In an infinite horizon economy, the constrained-efficient allocation converges to high...
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作者：Champagne, Julien; Kurmann, Andre
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Over the past 25 years, real average hourly wages in the United States have become substantially more volatile relative to output. Microdata from the Current Population Survey (CPS) is used to show that this increase in relative volatility is predominantly due to increases in the relative volatility of hourly wages across different groups of workers. Compositional changes of the workforce, by contrast, account for only a small fraction of the increase in relative wage volatility. Simulations w...
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作者：Corradi, Valentina; Distaso, Walter; Mele, Antonio
作者单位：University of Warwick; Imperial College London; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); Universita della Svizzera Italiana
摘要：How does stock market volatility relate to the business cycle? We develop, and estimate, a no-arbitrage model, and find that (i) the level and fluctuations of stock volatility are largely explained by business cycle factors and (ii) some unobserved factor contributes to nearly 20% to the overall variation in volatility, although not to its ups and downs. Instead, this volatility of volatility relates to the business cycle. Finally, volatility risk-premiums are strongly countercyclical, even mo...
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作者：Ulrich, Maxim
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：Variations in trend inflation are the main driver for variations in the nominal yield curve. According to empirical data, investors observe a set of empirical models that could all have generated the time-series for trend inflation. This set has been large and volatile during the 1970s and early 1980s and small during the 1990s. I show that log utility together with Knightian uncertainty about trend inflation can explain the term premium in U.S. Treasury bonds. The equilibrium has two inflatio...
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作者：Iacoviello, Matteo; Pavan, Marina
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Universitat Jaume I; Universitat Jaume I
摘要：Housing and mortgage debt are studied in a quantitative general equilibrium model. The model matches wealth distribution, age profiles of homeownership and debt, and frequency of housing adjustment. Over the cycle, the model matches the cyclicality and volatility of housing investment, and the procyclicality of debt. Higher individual income risk and lower downpayments can explain the reduced volatility of housing investment, the reduced procyclicality of debt, and part of the reduced volatili...
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作者：Ilzetzki, Ethan; Mendoza, Enrique G.; Vegh, Carlos A.
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：Contributing to the debate on the macroeconomic effects of fiscal stimuli, we show that the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness to trade, and public indebtedness. Based on a novel quarterly dataset of government expenditure in 44 countries, we find that (i) the output effect of an increase in government consumption is larger in industrial than in developing countries; (ii) the...
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作者：Rocheteau, Guillaume; Wright, Randall
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：This study analyzes economies with an essential role for liquid assets in the exchange process. The model can generate multiple stationary equilibria, across which asset prices, market participation, capitalization, output and welfare are positively related. It can also generate a variety of nonstationary equilibria, even when fundamentals are deterministic and time invariant, including periodic, chaotic and stochastic (sunspot) equilibria with recurrent market crashes. Some equilibria have as...
