Comment on Can more public information raise uncertainty? The international evidence on forward guidance by Michael Ehrmann, Gaetano Gaballo, Peter Hoffmann and Georg Strasser

• 成果类型: Editorial Material
• 署名作者: Campbell, Jeffrey R.
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.09.016
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 113-117
• 关键词: Effective lower bound; New keynesian monetary policy

摘要

Ehrmann et al. contains very useful international evidence on the efficacy of forward guidance at anchoring expectations of future policy rates at the ELB. The authors give one finding particular attention, that short-term time-consistent forward guidance raises the responses of expected future policy rates to macroeconomic data surprises. I argue that this empirical result should be interpreted with caution. Nevertheless, the paper's development of a novel theoretical explanation for it based on financial market prices' imperfect information aggregation merits the reader's attention. I conjecture that such imperfections are welfare improving in standard New Keynesian models. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.