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作者：Faust, Jon; Rogers, John H.; Swanson, Eric; Wright, Jonathan H.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
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作者：Besley, Timothy; Coate, Stephen
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Cornell University
摘要：This paper develops and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky prices and wages for the euro area. The model incorporates various other features such as habit formation, costs of adjustment in capital accumulation and variable capacity utilization. It is estimated with Bayesian techniques using seven key macroeconomic variables: GDP, consumption, investment, prices, real wages, employment, and the nominal interest rate. The introduction of ten orthogonal st...
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作者：Castanheira, Micael
摘要：This paper contrasts direct election with political appointment of regulators. When regulators are appointed, regulatory policy becomes bundled with other policy issues the appointing politicians are responsible for. Because voters have only one vote to cast and regulatory issues are not salient for most voters, there are electoral incentives to respond to stakeholder interests. If regulators are elected, their stance on regulation is the only salient issue so that the electoral incentive is t...
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作者：Mankiw, N. Gregory; Reis, Ricardo
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks in an international vector autoregression. Using high-frequency data on the prices of Fed Funds futures contracts, we measure the impact of the surprise component of the FOMC-day Federal Reserve policy decision on financial variables, such as the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate. We show how this information can be used to achieve identification without having to make the usual strong assumption ...
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作者：Frankel, Jeffrey; Giavazzi, Francesco
摘要：Voting theory generally concludes that, in first-past-the-post elections, all votes should go to effective candidates (Duverger's Law), and parties should adopt a similar platform (median voter theorem). However, such predictions are not always met in practice. We show why divergence and vote dispersion is a natural outcome when (a) parties are opportunistic, (b) there is uncertainty on the position of the median voter and (c) elections are repeated. Voting for losers increases the information...
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作者：Smets, Frank; Wouters, Raf
作者单位：European Central Bank; European Central Bank; National Bank of Belgium
摘要：Recently there has been a great deal of interest in studying monetary policy under model uncertainty. We point out that different assumptions about the uncertainty may result in drastically different robust policy recommendations. Therefore, we develop new methods to analyze uncertainty about the parameters of a model, the lag specification, the serial correlation of shocks, and the effects of real-time data in one coherent structure. We consider both parametric and nonparametric specification...
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作者：Onatski, Alexei; Williams, Noah
作者单位：Columbia University; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper assumes that a central bank commits itself to maintaining an inflation target and then asks what measure of the inflation rate the central bank should use if it wants to maximize economic stability. The paper first formalizes this problem and examines its microeconomic foundations. It then shows how the weight of a sector in the stability price index depends on the sector's characteristics, including size, cyclical sensitivity, sluggishness of price adjustment, and magnitude of sect...
