WHAT MEASURE OF INFLATION SHOULD A CENTRAL BANK TARGET?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Onatski, Alexei; Williams, Noah
• 署名单位: Columbia University; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1162/154247603770383406
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 1087-1122
• 关键词: monetary-policy; uncertainty

摘要

This paper assumes that a central bank commits itself to maintaining an inflation target and then asks what measure of the inflation rate the central bank should use if it wants to maximize economic stability. The paper first formalizes this problem and examines its microeconomic foundations. It then shows how the weight of a sector in the stability price index depends on the sector's characteristics, including size, cyclical sensitivity, sluggishness of price adjustment, and magnitude of sectoral shocks. When a numerical illustration of the problem is calibrated to U.S. data, one tentative conclusion is that a central bank that wants to achieve maximum stability of economic activity should use a price index that gives substantial weight to the level of nominal wages. (JEL: E42, E52, E58)