Leveraging probabilistic forecasts for dengue preparedness and control: The 2024 Dengue Forecasting Sprint in Brazil

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Araujo, Eduardo Correa; Carvalho, Luiz Max; Ganem, Fabiana; Vacaro, Lua Bida; Bastos, Leonardo S.; Freitas, Lais Picinini; Almeida, Iasmim Ferreira De; Bastos, Marcio; Alencar, Ramila; Bianchi, Lucas; Capellan, Raul; Chen, Xiang; Cruz, Oswaldo; Cunha, Americo; Das, Haridas K.; Fletcher, Chloe; Lana, Raquel Martins; Lowe, Rachel; Luhrsen, Daniela; Moirano, Giovenale; Moraga, Paula; Stolerman, Lucas M.; Valente, Fernanda; Codeco, Claudia Torres; Coelho, Flavio C.
• 署名单位: Getulio Vargas Foundation; Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz; Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya; Barcelona Supercomputer Center (BSC-CNS); King Abdullah University of Science & Technology; Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro; Laboratorio Nacional de Computacao Cientifica (LNCC); Oklahoma State University System; Oklahoma State University - Stillwater; ICREA; Getulio Vargas Foundation
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2508989123
• 发表日期: 2026-02-17
• 页码: e2508989123
• 关键词: forecast; dengue; BRAZIL; ensemble; models

摘要

Forecast models are a key decision-support tool for public health authorities in managing epidemics, feeding into early warning systems, scenario evaluations, and an empirical basis for resource allocation. In Brazil, improving dengue forecasting became a priority in response to the unprecedented increase in cases, which surpassed the total of the previous decade and expanded to new regions. The Infodengue-Mosqlimate consortium launched the Infodengue-Mosqlimate Dengue Challenge 2024 (IMDC24), or Dengue Forecast Sprint, bringing together six international teams provided with cases and climate covariates data to generate actionable forecasts for 2024 and 2025 seasons in five diverse Brazilian states, leveraging advanced machine learning and classical statistical models. This paper outlines the structure and findings of the IMDC24. The performance of the models varied between years and locations, and no single model consistently excelled, especially during 2024's unprecedentedly large season. This performance variability highlighted the need for ensemble approaches. The ensemble models developed are presented as the main results of this collaborative development. As intended, the ensemble models have been adopted by Brazilian public health authorities to help with planning and response to the forecasted 2025 dengue epidemics across the country.