Divergent population trajectories despite similar response to temperature in a widespread aerial insectivore

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Taff, Conor C.; Shipley, J. Ryan; Ardia, Daniel R.; Aborn, David; Albert, Lauren; Belisle, Marc; Belmaker, Amos; Berzins, Lisha L.; Blake, Tricia; Bonier, Frances; Brewer, Hannah C.; Butler, Michael W.; Cameron, Kyle; Case, Samuel B.; van Oordt, David Chang; Clark, Robert G.; Clotfelter, Ethan D.; Cox, Amelia R.; Dawson, Russell D.; Derryberry, Elizabeth P.; Bohorquez, Ana M. Diaz; Dunn, Peter O.; Ferretti, Valentina; Forsman, Anna M.; Fuirst, Matthew; Garant, Dany; Garrett, Daniel R.; Gutierrez, Jessica; Hagelin, Julie C.; Hardt, Braelei M.; Harris, Mercy E.; Horton, Kyle; Houle, Carolyne; Houtz, Jennifer L.; Jones, Patricia L.; Jordan, Kimberley C.; Kindel, Amanda S.; Klaver, Robert; Knutie, Sarah A.; Lauck, Katherine S.; Lombardo, Michael P.; Lougheed, Stephen C.; Love, Ashley C.; Mackenzie, Stuart A.; McCarty, John P.; McKellar, Ann E.; Mejia, Nicole; Morrissey, Christy A.; Nahom, Mia L.; Norris, D. Ryan; Para, Lillian M.; Pelletier, Fanie; Porter, Cody K.; Rendell, Wallace B.; Riddell, Eric A.; Rivers, James W.; Robertson, Raleigh J.; Rose, Alexandra; Rosvall, Kimberly A.; Ryan, Thomas A.; Shannon, Ryan P.; Shutler, Dave; Simons, Victoria F.; Stanback, Mark; Tarwater, Corey E.; Thorpe, Patrick A.; Tingley, Morgan W.; Tischer, Christine L.; Tonelli, Benjamin A.; Truan, Melanie L.; Twining, Cornelia W.; Uehling, Jennifer J.; Vleck, Carol; Vlec, David; Watson, Michael L.; Wheelwright, Nathaniel T.; Whittingham, Linda A.; Winkler, David W.; Youngflesh, Casey; Zimmer, Cedric; Vitousek, Maren N.
• 署名单位: Cornell University; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science & Technology (EAWAG); University of Tennessee System; University of Tennessee at Chattanooga; Indiana University System; Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education (PASSHE); Indiana University Bloomington; Indiana University of Pennsylvania; University of Sherbrooke; Tel Aviv University; University of Saskatchewan; Queens University - Canada; University of Connecticut; Lafayette College; University of Wyoming; Princeton University; Amherst College; University of Northern British Columbia; University of Tennessee System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Milwaukee; University of Buenos Aires; Purdue University System; Purdue University; University of California System; University of California Davis; Iowa State University; University of California System; University of California Davis; Grand Valley State University; University System of Ohio; Miami University; University of Nebraska System; University of Nebraska Omaha; University of Guelph; University of Tennessee System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; Hope College; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina School of Medicine; Oregon State University; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Acadia University; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Clemson University; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Iowa State University; Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education (PASSHE); West Chester University of Pennsylvania
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2601817123
• 发表日期: 2026-07-14
• 页码: e2601817123
• 关键词: phenological sensitivity; climate change; laying date; adaptation; CLIMATE-CHANGE; CLUTCH SIZE; date; mortality; selection; songbird; animals; ecology; network; shifts

摘要

Climate change is shifting when animals breed [C. Parmesan, G. Yohe, Nature 421, 37-42 (2003) and S. J. Thackeray et al., Nature 535, 241-245 (2016)], but it is not clear why some populations keep pace with warming while others fall behind [L. D. Bailey etal., Nat. Commun. 13, 2112 (2022) and J. M. Samplonius etal., Glob. Change Biol. 24, 3780-3790 (2018)]. Differences could arise from variation in sensitivity to temperature [L. D. Bailey et al., Nat. Commun. 13, 2112 (2022)] or constraints on the ability to respond to temperature. Without knowing whether populations differ in sensitivity-or in their ability to act on that sensitivity-we cannot identify which are most at risk. Using 1,555 population-years from 123 populations of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor), we show that populations have similar sensitivity to local temperature, advancing breeding by about one day per degree of warming. However, northern populations face tighter time constraints and greater exposure to recent warming. Northern populations have advanced laying dates the most, but still experience stronger selection for earlier breeding, especially in warm years; they have also declined most in breeding abundance. These findings suggest that vulnerability to climate change can arise not just from different sensitivity to warming, but from when and where populations can respond effectively. By disentangling sensitivity from timing constraints, our results are consistent with a general mechanism by which even uniformly responsive species can show uneven impacts of climate change across their ranges.