Effective chilling temperatures for dormancy release in extratropical forest trees increase from cold to warm regions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Zhang, Rui; Wang, Fucheng; Zheng, Jinbin; Chen, Lei; Gu, Hongshuang; Zhao, Yu; Fu, Yongshuo; Vitasse, Yann; Chen, Xinli; Hanninena, Heikki; Zohner, Constantin M.; Wu, Jiasheng
• 署名单位: Zhejiang A&F University; Zhejiang A&F University; Sichuan University; Beijing Normal University; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow & Landscape Research; University of Bern; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2531077123
• 发表日期: 2026-01-13
• 页码: e2531077123
• 关键词: climate change; tree phenology; rest break; adaptive evolution; FROST DAMAGE; phenology; shifts; BUDBURST

摘要

Seasonal dormancy in extratropical trees is a critical adaptation that synchronizes growth with favorable climatic conditions. Traditionally, the effective chilling temperatures (ECT) required for dormancy release have been assumed to be fixed, ranging between 0 and 10 degrees C, based largely on studies in cold climates. However, whether the ECT range varies across diverse climatic regions remains unclear, limiting our ability to predict tree responses to climate change. Here, we quantify ECT variation using controlled experiments on 14 species and long-term phenological observations of 65 species across a similar to 3,000 km latitudinal gradient in China. Our experimental results show that the estimated upper ECT threshold increases by 0.27 +/- 0.06 degrees C per decreasing degree of latitude, indicating an expansion of the ECT range toward higher temperatures in warmer climates. Our modeling analysis of long-term phenological records supports this trend, showing a comparable increase of 0.18 +/- 0.02 degrees C per decreasing degree of latitude. These findings provide empirical evidence of latitudinal variation in ECT, offering insights into the evolutionary adaptations in shaping tree seasonal growth across diverse climates, challenging the traditional view of a fixed 0 to 10 degrees C range. Incorporating this adaptive variation into vegetation models and management strategies is crucial for improving predictions of forest phenology, productivity, and resilience under climate warming.