ICE arrests, 2015-2026: Variation in targeting, method, and geography

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: East, Chloe N.; Patler, Caitlin; Cox, Elizabeth
• 署名单位: University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2618096123
• 发表日期: 2026-08-04
• 页码: e2618096123
• 关键词: Immigration policy; immigration law enforcement; ICE arrests; IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT; crime evidence

摘要

We analyze and decompose administrative data on all 1.6 million US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests from October 2015 to March 2026. Our results reveal that the reality of immigration enforcement diverges sharply from the public narrative that ICE arrests are necessary to protect public safety by removing people who commit crimes: Although arrests spiked at the outset of both Trump presidencies, the share of arrested individuals with criminal convictions fell significantly, with especially marked declines in 2025. A shift in ICE tactics partly explains this pattern, but even conditional on tactic, the share with a criminal conviction declined as arrests rose. Moreover, we find substantial geographic heterogeneity in ICE methods, despite nearly universal declines in the criminal conviction rate. Our findings provide important evidence for policymakers, the general public, and researchers studying this period of immigration policy.